AUDUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
- RES 1: 0.6573/6625 20-day EMA / High Jan 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: 0.6506 @ 07:50 GMT Feb 9
- SUP 1: 0.6469 Low Feb 05
- SUP 2: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
- SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest break to fresh cycle lows confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 0.6453, the Nov 17 low. Moving average studies have crossed into a bear-mode set-up, strengthening a bearish theme. Key short-term resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.6625, the Jan 30 high.
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NORWAY: Seasonally Adjusted Data Suggests A Firmer Report Than At First Glance
While the monthly and annual figures in the December CPI report were softer than expected, the seasonally adjusted series indicated relatively firmer price pressures. SA CPI rose +0.46% M/M (vs +0.61% prior) while SA CPI-ATE rose +0.31% M/M for the second consecutive month. Both run-rates are above the Norges Bank's 2% target when annualised.
- This suggests that the Norges Bank will be in no rush at the upcoming meeting to alter its December guidance, which notes the policy rate "will likely be kept at 4.5% for some time ahead".
- As a result of the bounce back in energy prices over October and November (+11.3% M/M NSA and +17.4% M/M NSA respectively), headline CPI momentum, calculated as a 3m/3m saar rose to +5.23% (vs +1.86% prior, the highest level since July 2023). CPI-ATE momentum also accelerated to +5.27% 3m/3m saar (vs +4.19% prior).
- Rounding off the main sub-categories of the report (in NSA terms), services ex-rent decelerated to +5.1% Y/Y NSA (vs +5.68% prior) but were flat on the month. Core goods fell -0.8% M/M NSA in December, but softened a touch on an annual basis to +7.1% Y/Y NSA (vs +7.2%). Rents rose +0.2% M/M for the second month in a row, with the annual rate rising to +4.6% Y/Y NSA (vs +4.4% prior)
- Energy prices fell -9.8% Y/Y NSA (vs -15.1% prior), but fell -1.1% M/M NSA.
MNI: FRANCE NOV INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION +0.5% M/M, +0.6% Y/Y
- MNI: FRANCE NOV INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION +0.5% M/M, +0.6% Y/Y
- FRANCE NOV MANUFACTURING OUTPUT +0.3% M/M, -0.9% Y/Y
USD: A mixed start for the Dollar
- The Dollar is seeing similar price action this week, with the Greenback trading within this week's range, as Market participants await the US CPI on Thursday.
- The Yen is the worst performer, down 0.34%, and the Aussie is up 0.18%, but both pairs trade within last Friday's wide range, on US NFP/ISM day.
- Closest Technical, sees next resistance in USDJPY at 145.25 50-day EMA.
- And next support is EURUSD comes at 1.0900/77 Trendline drawn from the Nov 1 low/ Low Jan 05.
