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Analysts expect another strong Democratic performance in a House Special Election tomorrow in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District. The seat was vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), who won the state’s gubernatorial race in November last year. 

• NBC News notes, “In every single special House election since Trump’s return to the White House, Democrats have posted substantial net-improvements compared with the 2024 White House result...
• “In six specials, the smallest Democratic overperformance compared with 2024 has been 13 points, while the biggest was 25. The average has been 18 points. If form holds, it would mean that New Jersey’s 11th District will produce a landslide for the Democratic candidate, Analilia Mejia, of somewhere around 30 points.”
• NPR notes, "According to the election analysis publication The Downballot, Democrats have improved upon their 2024 presidential election margins by an average of 11% in special elections so far in 2026 and roughly 13% since the start of 2025."
• Yesterday, the Cook Political Report upgraded Democrats chances of winning four crucial Senate races. According to Polymarket, Democrats are now assigned a 54% implied probability of flipping both chambers of Congress in November. 

Figure 1: Recent House Special Elections

Source: NBC News

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