GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3597 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 31 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3575 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 1.3514 50.0% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 31 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.3484 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 1.3458 @ 16:12 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 1.3287/3159 Low Apr 8 / Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25
• SUP 3: 1.3038 Low Nov 20 ‘25 
• SUP 4: 1.3010 Low Nov 4 & 5 and a key M/T support

A S/T bull cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and a continuation higher would open 1.3514, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that trend signals are bearish - moving average studies are in bear-mode position highlighting a broader dominant downtrend. This suggests that - for now - gains are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 1.3159, the Mar 31 low. A break of this support would resume the downtrend.  

US President Donald Trump’s approval rating on inflation is trending back down amid rising pessimism over the economic outlook. His rating on the inflation is at net -35.5%, according to Silver Bulletin.

• The University of Michigan notes, “Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago. Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall.”
• Meanwhile, The Cook Political Report has shifted four crucial Senate races towards Democrats, another sign that the political environment is tilting away from the GOP ahead of November’s midterms. But, “due to the difficulty of the map, winning back a majority still remains a tall order [for Democrats],” the outlet writes.
• CPR moved Georgia and North Carolina from ‘Toss-Up’ to ‘Lean Democratic’. Ohio moved from ‘Lean Republican to ‘Toss-Up’. Nebraska moved from ‘Solid Republican’ to ‘Likely Republican’. According to Polymarket, Democrats’ chances of winning both sides of Congress ticked up slightly to 54%.

Figure 1: President Donald Trump Approval Rating on Issues

Source: Silver Bulletin

• Adding to the above improvement in risk sentiment linked to US-Iran discussions, US rates are back to their most dovish of the day.
• Barring very front rates, they broadly match an earlier short-lived rally on unsourced headlines circulating that Iranian officials are studying abandoning uranium enrichment (since somewhat supported elsewhere).
• FF cumulative moves from 3.64% effective: 0bp Apr, 0bp Jun, -1bp Jul, -3bp Sep, -4bp Oct and -8bp Dec building to 15bp of cuts with the Jun 2027 meeting.
• SOFR futures are currently up to +3 ticks on the day (M8) whilst the terminal yield of 3.395% (Z7, -2.5bp) would nudge below the 3.40% of Apr 8/9 for technically its lowest close since Mar 23.
• Tomorrow sees data highlighted by the March PPI report plus heavier Fedspeak with Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins, Barkin and Barr (the last four all in a fireside chat).