EURGBP TECHS: Trades Through Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 1: 0.8451 High Jan 14
- PRICE: 0.8439 @ 06:28 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 0.8385 Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 0.8325/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
- SUP 3: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
- SUP 4: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and the cross traded higher Tuesday. The latest recovery undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has been cleared. Note too that 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8325.
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BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 119.813 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 119.674 2.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 119.280/119.480 High Dec 4 and 5 / High Dec 3
- RES 1: 118.632/119.130 20-day EMA / High Dec 11
- PRICE: 118.230 @ 06:09 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 118.170 Low Dec 12
- SUP 2: 118.059 61.8% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.850 Low Nov 22
- SUP 4: 117.723 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
The uptrend in Bobl futures remains intact, however a corrective cycle is in play and this has resulted in a continued pullback from the Dec 2 high. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA signalling scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would open 118.059, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective cycle. The first key resistance to watch is 119.130, the Dec 11 high.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 16-Dec | 0930 | Dec | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 17-Dec | 0700 | Oct/Nov | Labour Market Survey |
| 18-Dec | 0700 | Nov | Consumer inflation report |
| 18-Dec | 0700 | Nov | Producer Prices |
| 18-Dec | 1100 | Dec | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 19-Dec | 0001 | Nov | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 19-Dec | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 19-Dec | 1200 | BOE MPS and Minutes | |
| 19-Dec | 1200 | BOE Agents' summary of business conditions | |
| 20-Dec | 0700 | Nov | Public Sector Finances / Retail Sales |
| 20-Dec | 1100 | Dec | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 20-Dec | 1630 | BOE to announce Q1-25 APF sales schedule | |
| 23-Dec | 0700 | Q3 | GDP Second Estimate / Current Account Balance |
| 31-Dec | 0001 | Dec | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 16-Dec | 700 | EU | ECB's Lagarde press conference with Bank of Lithuania |
| 16-Dec | 815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 16-Dec | 815 | EU | ECB's Lagarde speech on resilience amid geopolitical shift |
| 16-Dec | 830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 16-Dec | 830 | EU | ECB's Lagarde in panel on pillars of resilience |
| 16-Dec | 845 | EU | ECB's De Guindos remarks at Madrid Foro Empresarial |
| 16-Dec | 900 | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16-Dec | 900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 16-Dec | 1630 | EU | ECB's Schnabel speech at CEPR symposium |
| 17-Dec | 900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 17-Dec | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions/ Expectations Index |
| 17-Dec | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 17-Dec | 1000 | EU | ECB's Elderson at ECB Banking Supervision conference |
| 18-Dec | 900 | EU | ECB's Lane in fireside chat at MNI Connect Event |
| 18-Dec | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 18-Dec | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
