CHILE: Traders Survey Sees December Cut, Followed by January Hold
- In line with the BCCh economist survey, traders see a 25bp rate cut this month, followed by a pause in January.
- "INFLATION SEEN AT 3.5% OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS"
- "BENCHMARK RATE SEEN 5.0% IN NEXT MEETING"
- "BENCHMARK RATE SEEN 4.5% IN 12 MONTHS" (RTRS)
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STIR: Mix Of Short Setting & Long Cover Seen In SOFR Futures On Monday
OI data points to a mix of short setting and long cover in SOFR futures on Monday, as the inflationary impact of Trump’s policy preferences pushed futures lower.
- Short setting dominated in the front 5 contracts, although apparent long cover in SFRZ5 provided the largest net OI swing on the day.
| 11-Nov-24 | 08-Nov-24 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU4 | 1,268,974 | 1,268,816 | +158 | Whites | +20,698 |
SFRZ4 | 1,201,829 | 1,192,594 | +9,235 | Reds | -13,101 |
SFRH5 | 1,068,906 | 1,062,610 | +6,296 | Greens | -538 |
SFRM5 | 952,519 | 947,510 | +5,009 | Blues | +2,245 |
SFRU5 | 718,067 | 713,883 | +4,184 |
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SFRZ5 | 944,056 | 961,298 | -17,242 |
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SFRH6 | 629,897 | 630,329 | -432 |
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SFRM6 | 604,846 | 604,457 | +389 |
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SFRU6 | 538,502 | 537,888 | +614 |
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SFRZ6 | 621,744 | 620,918 | +826 |
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SFRH7 | 392,102 | 392,833 | -731 |
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SFRM7 | 326,667 | 327,914 | -1,247 |
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SFRU7 | 267,693 | 268,674 | -981 |
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SFRZ7 | 267,193 | 264,164 | +3,029 |
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SFRH8 | 204,389 | 204,298 | +91 |
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SFRM8 | 153,598 | 153,492 | +106 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Trend Needle Points North
- In FX, EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend and Monday’s bearish start to the week plus today’s move lower, reinforces the current trend condition. Last week, the Nov 6 sell-off highlighted a resumption of the downtrend. The move down resulted in a breach of 1.0761, the Oct 23 low. Sights are on 1.0611, the 38.2% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull cycle, and 1.0568, the Nov 2 2023 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0831, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish. Today’s move lower has resulted in a print below key short-term support at 1.2834, the Nov 6 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 1.2762 next, the Aug 13 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3048, the Nov 6 high. Initial resistance is at 1.2979, the 20-day EMA.
- The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish with price trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 153.88, the Oct 28 high, has been breached, reinforcing a bullish condition. Sights are on 155.27, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing. Initial firm support is 151.76, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal the start of a short-term corrective cycle. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 149.84.
US TSY FUTURES: Most Contracts Saw Net Short Setting On Monday
OI data points to net short setting in most contracts during Monday’s holiday-thinned trade, with only apparent long cover in TY futures breaking the wider theme.
- Contract-specific net DV01 equivalent swings were relatively modest on the day.
- Price action centered on the inflationary impact of incoming President Trump's policy preferences.
| 11-Nov-24 | 08-Nov-24 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,527,719 | 4,521,779 | +5,940 | +213,958 |
FV | 6,343,715 | 6,334,805 | +8,910 | +371,134 |
TY | 4,566,619 | 4,570,487 | -3,868 | -244,391 |
UXY | 2,214,369 | 2,206,422 | +7,947 | +696,017 |
US | 1,845,278 | 1,833,018 | +12,260 | +1,580,373 |
WN | 1,755,462 | 1,753,359 | +2,103 | +421,786 |
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| Total | +33,292 | +3,038,878 |
