INDIA: Trade Official-India To Go For Path Of Trade Liberalisation w/US
Reuters reports comments from an Indian trade official stating that "India has decided to go for a path of trade liberalisation with the US." Adds that a "deal with the US [will] open up opportunities for India, [and] grow two-way trade". Claims that there has been "very good progress" on trade talks with the US that offer "more opportunities for India than concerns." Says the liberalisation will focus on both tariff and non-tariff barriers. Commerce Secretary Shri Sunil Barthwa says that India "hopes to negotiated a good bilateral trade agreement with the US."
- On 11 April, Reuters reported "India and the U.S. have finalised terms of reference for talks over the first part of a bilateral trade deal, an Indian trade official said on Friday, adding it was possible that a "win-win" deal could take shape in the next 90 days. [...] India and the U.S. agreed in February to work on the first phase of a trade deal to be concluded late this year, with a view to reaching bilateral trade worth $500 billion by 2030."
- Separately, the official says that India is also in conversation with UK trade negotiators looking to "resolve pending issues" on their own bilateral trade deal. Last week, The Guardian reported that the issue of visas was the main obstacle, with a deal being '90%' completed.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
