LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: August PPI, Retail Sales, Weekly Claims
Sep-13 16:11
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Sep-14 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (216k, 225k)
- Sep-14 0830 Continuing Claims (1.679M, 1.695M)
- Sep-14 0830 PPI Final Demand MoM (0.3%, 0.4%), YoY (0.8%, 1.3%)
- Sep-14 0830 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.3%, 0.2%), YoY (2.4%, 2.2%)
- Sep-14 0830 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM (0.2%, 0.2%), YoY (2.7%, 2.7%)
- Sep-14 0830 Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.7%, 0.1%)
- Sep-14 0830 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (1.0%, 0.4%)
- Sep-14 0830 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (1.0%, -0.1%)
- Sep-14 0830 Retail Sales Control Group (1.0%, -0.1%)
- Sep-14 1000 Business Inventories (0.0%, 0.1%)
- Sep-14 1130 US Tsy $80B 4W, $70B 8W Bill auctions
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US: Trump 2024 Campaign Continues To Gather Momentum
Aug-14 16:10
A new poll from I&I/TIPP finds former President Donald Trump has increasing his lead in Republican presidential polling following his indictment in a Department of Justice probe.
- I&I: Among [Republican and Republican-leaning respondents], 57% said they would support Trump for president. That compares to 53% in July and 55% in June. So, if anything, Trump’s party support is strengthening, not weakening [since being charged in relation to the January 6 probe]."
- I&I: "Trump’s main rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis [R-FL], appears to be losing steam. Some 12% of GOP voters in August said they would vote for DeSantis, down from 14% in July and 19% in June.
- I&I: "Only one potential rival seems to be rising in the polls: Entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy, who garners 8% support in August, up from 7% in July and just 2% in June."
- Politico notes: "There’s no doubt Ramaswamy is rising. The only question is how much. While he’s at 6.1 percent in the RealClearPolitics average now, he was at 3.1 percent a month ago and 2.2 percent the month prior."
Figure 1: Republican Presidential Nomination Polling
Source: RealClearPolitics
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call Spread Seller
Aug-14 16:06
ERH4 96.125/96.75 1x1.5 call spread sold at 12.75 in 4.25k (vs 96.16)
CANADA: Notably Milder Tightening In Business Lending Conditions Than The US
Aug-14 15:44
- Business lending conditions tightened further in Q2 but by less than was the case in Q1, with 7.6% vs 11.3% in Q1.
- The softer tightening was driven by non-price conditions whilst price conditions continued to tighten at a similar pace to the prior quarter.
- However, in doing so it continues to see a substantially more lenient response from Canadian lenders than those in the US, both since the regional banking fallout from March onwards but also beforehand in 2H22 as rates increased aggressively.
- The divergence, at least compared with commercial and industrial loans, stands out with prior cycles when the two moved more closely in lockstep.
