RIKSBANK: Thedeen Re-iterates Two-sided Alternative Scenarios
Thedeen turns to alternative scenarios, which were detailed in the policy statement and MPR: * The ...
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COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Test 20-Day EMA Support Again, Bull Cycle Intact
A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. However, the move lower from the Jan 29 high continues to highlight a corrective phase. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at $62.61 (pierced). The 50-day EMA lies at $60.95. A clear breach of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal and open $58.53, the Jan 20 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $66.48, the Jan 30 high. Clearance of it would resume the uptrend. Recent gains in Gold highlight a retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 sell-off. The next two resistance points to monitor are $5139.9 and $5314.0, Fibonacci retracement levels. Note that the sell from the Jan 29 high continues to highlight a potential top in the L/T trend and from a S/T perspective, an unwinding of the recent overbought condition. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on $4403.0, Feb 2 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.6 or +0.95% at $63.45
- Natural Gas down $0.13 or -4.04% at $3.108
- Gold spot down $56.63 or -1.13% at $4936.21
- Copper down $8.3 or -1.42% at $577.7
- Silver down $1.67 or -2.18% at $74.9726
- Platinum down $36.71 or -1.8% at $2008.48
EQUITIES: Bearish Threat for E-Mini S&P Remains Present, Key Support at 6751.50
The medium-term trend condition in EuroStoxx 50 futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. The contract has pierced the 6100.00 handle. A clear breach of this hurdle would open 6134.00, a Fibonacci projection point. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 5908.77. Clearance of this average would highlight a short-term top. A sharp sell-off on Feb 12 in S&P E-Minis reinstates a potential bearish threat leaving key resistance at 7043.00, the Jan 28 high and bull trigger, intact for now. Attention turns to the key support at 6751.50, the Feb 6 low, where a break would highlight a top and a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 6691.56, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial resistance to watch is at 6919.38, the 50-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 239.92 pts or -0.42% at 56566.49 and the TOPIX ended 25.83 pts lower or -0.68% at 3761.55.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 64.31 pts or +0.26% at 24865.74, FTSE 100 higher by 51.21 pts or +0.49% at 10524.76, CAC 40 up 17.28 pts or +0.21% at 8333.78 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 12.62 pts or +0.21% at 5991.5.
- Dow Jones mini up 9 pts or +0.02% at 49577, S&P 500 mini down 9 pts or -0.13% at 6841.5, NASDAQ mini down 114.75 pts or -0.46% at 24688.75.
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