US PREVIEW: The US Macro Week Ahead: GDP Revisions, PCE, Heavy Fedspeak
Sep-19 19:47
From our Macro Weekly:
- Thursday sees the third release for Q2 national accounts covering GDP and PCE amongst other components. GDP growth is expected to be unrevised at 3.3% annualized although personal consumption could be revised up to 1.9% annualized according to a limited early sample of analysts. Final domestic demand (or PDFP per Powell’s terminology) will be watched after being revised up to a second consecutive quarter at 1.9% annualized in the second Q2 release, still down from the 3% averaged through 2024. Note as well that this release comes with the BEA's annual update, which rather than just altering the prior quarter will see changes going back to 1Q20. That should see greater focus on a third release than would usually be the case, including when it comes to the recent core PCE profile.
- Friday’s monthly Personal Income and Outlays report for August will then provide greater clarity on recent momentum. That could include solid consumption growth after a stronger than expected retail sales report for August. Core PCE will also be watched with it widely expected to print softer than the 0.35% M/M seen for core CPI. We saw unrounded core PCE estimates with a median around 0.20-0.21% M/M after the mid-month PPI and CPI releases which could have been lifted by 1bp after import price data. As things stand, that would mark some moderation after the 0.27% M/M in July and 0.26% M/M in June, but would still be a fourth consecutive month running above 2% annualized.
- Away from data, mention goes to heavy Fedspeak after last week’s FOMC decision. The committee remains particularly divided: taking into account of Wednesday’s cut, 6 members don’t want any more cuts this year (in addition to 1 dot who would have preferred not to cut at all), 2 look for one cut, 9 look for two cuts (i.e. one each meeting) and Miran wants to see rates another 125bp lower.
| Date | ET | Impact | Event |
| 22-Sep | 945 | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 22-Sep | 1000 | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 22-Sep | 1200 | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
| 22-Sep | 1200 | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 23-Sep | 830 | * | Current Account Balance |
| 23-Sep | 830 | ** | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 23-Sep | 855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 23-Sep | 900 | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 23-Sep | 945 | *** | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 23-Sep | 945 | *** | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 23-Sep | 1000 | ** | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 23-Sep | 1000 | *** | NAR existing home sales |
| 23-Sep | 1000 | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 23-Sep | 1235 | Fed Chair Jay Powell | |
| 24-Sep | 700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 24-Sep | 1000 | *** | New Home Sales |
| 24-Sep | 1130 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 24-Sep | 1300 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 24-Sep | 1610 | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 25-Sep | 820 | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 25-Sep | 830 | *** | Jobless Claims |
| 25-Sep | 830 | ** | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 25-Sep | 830 | *** | GDP / PCE Quarterly |
| 25-Sep | 830 | ** | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 25-Sep | 830 | ** | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 25-Sep | 900 | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 25-Sep | 900 | KC Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
| 25-Sep | 1000 | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | |
| 25-Sep | 1100 | ** | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 25-Sep | 1300 | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 25-Sep | 1340 | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 25-Sep | 1530 | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 26-Sep | 830 | *** | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 26-Sep | 900 | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 26-Sep | 1000 | *** | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
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LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Wkly Claims, S&P PMIs, Home Sales, Fed Speak
Aug-20 19:45
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08/21 0730 Atl Fed Bostic brief remarks on economy (no text, no Q&A)
- 08/21 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (224k, 226k)
- 08/21 0830 Continuing Claims (1.953M, 1.960M)
- 08/21 0830 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (15.9, 6.5)
- 08/21 0945 S&P Global US Mfg PMI (49.8, 49.7)
- 08/21 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (55.7, 54.2)
- 08/21 0945 S&P Global US Composite PMI (55.1, 53.5)
- 08/21 1000 Leading Index (-0.3%, 0.1%)
- 08/21 1000 Existing Home Sales (3.93M, 3.92M), MoM (-2.7%, -0.3%)
- 08/21 1130 US Tsy $100B 4W & $85B 8W bill auctions
- 08/21 1300 US Tsy $8B 30Y TIPS reopen
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Short-Term Support
Aug-20 19:30
- RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6500 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6435 @ 16:20 BST Aug 20
- SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16
AUDUSD is off its most recent highs to trade lower Wednesday. From a trend perspective, the condition remains bullish highlighted by MA studies that remain in a bull-mode position. However, the pair is approaching support at 0.6419, the Aug 1 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would expose support at 0.6373, Jun 23 low and an important support. On the upside, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6625, the Aug 24 high.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Year End Rate Cut Call Buying
Aug-20 19:23
Various upside call structures targeting more rate cuts than currently priced traded Wednesday, SOFR outpacing Treasury options for the most part - though paper bought over 100k TYV5 113 calls earlier, adding to some 78k Tuesday. Underlying futures trade modestly higher after the bell - paring gains slightly after mixed messaging in the July FOMC minutes. Projected rate cuts consolidate from midday high to near steady vs. early morning (*) levels: Sep'25 at -20.6bp (-21.1bp), Oct'25 at -34.1bp (-34.9bp), Dec'25 at -54.0bp (-54.1bp), Jan'26 at -65.4bp (-65.1bp).
- SOFR Options:
- Block, 5,000 SFRH6 96.25/97.25 call spds, 26.5
- +50,000 SFRH6 97.25 calls, 6.0-6.5 covered
- +50,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.31/96.50/96.62 call condors, 3.0-3.125 ref 96.205
- +15,000 SFRU6 96.00/96.25/96.50 put flys, 3.25
- +5,000 SFRU5 95.81 puts, 3.25 vs. 95.90/0.30%
- 3,500 SFRU5 96.00/96.12/96.25 call flys ref 95.8975
- -20,000 SFRU5 95.81/SFRZ5 95.87 put spds, 0.75 net/Sep over
- +4,000 SFRU5 95.62/96.31 call over risk reversals, 0.25 ref 95.9025
- 8,000 SFRU6 96.75/97.25 2x1 put spds ref 96.805
- 1,400 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62 call condors ref 96.21
- Block, 4,500 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50/96.75/97.00 call condors, 6.0 ref 96.21
- 6,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.12/96.25 call flys ref 95.90
- 6,000 SFRU5 95.87/95.93 put spds ref 95.90
- Treasury Options: (reminder Sep options expire Friday)
- +10,000 USV5 119 calls, 16
- Block: -5,000 WNU5 117.5 puts 20 over the WNV5 116/119 put over risk reversal
- -8,000 TYV5 111.5 puts, 34 vs. 111-30.5/0.40%
- 1,700 FVU5 108.5 puts, 3.5 total volume over 6k
- 5,000 wk5 TU 103.75/103.87/104 put trees vs. TUU5 103.75 puts
- Block/screen, over 10,800 TYU5 111 puts, 2 vs. 111-22.5/0.08%
- over 5,600 TYU5 112 calls, 8 last
- over 5,300 TYU5 112.5 calls, 2 last
- over 103,600 TYV5 113 calls, 20-23 ref 111-24.5 to -25.5 (78k trade Tuesday)
