US PREVIEW: The US Macro Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes, Housing Data Feature

Retail sales rose 7.0% Y/Y in the week ending April 11, per this week's Johnson Redbook index release. That constitutes the month-to-date gain, which while below retailers' targeted 7.2% would still represent a post-2022 high.

• A lot of that nominal gain looks to be inflation-driven, with April CPI looking to come in around 4% Y/Y and core closer to 3%, but even that implies overall sales volume growth remains positive by this metric. We get the March Census Bureau data next week.
• The anecdotal section, once again, didn't make any mention of the war in the Middle East or the impact of higher energy prices.  "The first week of April went well. Sales were largely driven by seasonal items as retailers entered the final month of the first quarter. Many stores closed on Easter Sunday so that employees could spend time with their families, which meant Easter week sales were based on six days instead of seven compared to last year. People celebrated by getting together, sharing meals, going to church, and holding Easter egg hunts. Retailers are working to keep prices low to help families make their budgets go further."

• RES 4: 188.81 2.236 proj of the Mar 16 - 27 - 30 price swing  
• RES 3: 188.15 2.000 proj of the Mar 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 188.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 187.64 High Apr 15
• PRICE: 187.60 @ 16:41 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 185.89 Low Apr 13
• SUP 2: 184.97 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 184.07 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 182.59 Low Mar 30 

A strong bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the cross is building on recent gains. The latest rally has resulted in a breach of resistance at 186.87, the Jan 23 high and a key medium-term hurdle. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Note that price remains inside a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low. Initial firm support to watch is 184.97, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 188.15, a Fibonacci projection.        

The NY Fed's Empire manufacturing survey showed an impressive jump in the headline General Business Conditions index in April to 11.0 vs a negative reading in March (-0.2) in which it was something of a regional outlier to the downside.

• This was a 5-month high in the index, suggesting a shrugging-off of Iran war-related impact (Survey responses were collected between April 2 and 9, which partly captured the April 7 announcement of a ceasefire).
• The most impressive component of the survey was New Orders which soared to 19.3 from 6.4 for the highest since April 2023. Employment rose to 9.8 from 5.8, a less impressive jump, but reaching the best level since December 2022.
• Shipments improved too while delivery times and inventories were relatively flat, meaning that the overall translation into the national ISM Manufacturing gauge was 56.6, up from 52.6 prior, which was the best since April 2022.
• The most clearly cautionary note from the MidEast war impact came from prices: current prices paid jumped to 51.0 from 36.6 for a 6-month high, with expected 6-month prices paid reaching 61.6 vs 43.1 prior for a 5-month high. Prices received, both current and expected, also ticked higher.