ASIA FX: THB Reacts Little To Ex PM Thaksin Being Cleared, USD Firms Elsewhere

Aug-22 05:24

In South East Asia markets, the bias has been for a firmer USD, with dollar gains in the 0.20-0.30% region. This fits with the trends seen for the majors, where the dollar is gravitating higher ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech later.

  • USD/THB is trading with a positive bias in the first part of Friday dealings, like most other parts of the region. The pair was last around 32.66, up 0.15% versus end Thursday levels. This is fresh highs back to early August and through the 50-day EMA resistance point. The 100-day EMA is further north, close to 32.87. Headlines crossed earlier that ex-PM Thaksin has been cleared of a Royal Family insult charge. FX reaction was limited, while onshore equities pushed higher. However, there are other up-coming cases which could still create political instability. Other headlines have crossed from the Deputy FinMin that tax measures to boost consumption before year end are being considered.
  • USD/IDR is up around 0.35%, putting the pair into the 16340/45 region, fresh multi week highs. The 1 month NDF is little changed though, so this largely looks like catch up to USD gains from Thursday's session.
  • Onshore Philippine markets have returned, with USD/PHP rebounding back above 57.00, but it remains within recent ranges.
  • USD/MYR is above 4.2300 in latest dealings, earlier highs were close to 4.2360. Today's CPI underscored the weakness in inflation and for some domestic observers points to a need for further monetary policy action. 

Historical bullets

LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jul-23 05:23
DateUKPeriodEvent
24-Jul0930JulS&P Global Flash PMI
24-Jul1100JulCBI Industrial Trends
25-Jul0001JulGfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
25-Jul0700JunRetail Sales
28-Jul1100JulCBI Distributive Trades
29-Jul0001JulBRC Monthly Shop Price Index
29-Jul0930JunBOE Lending to Individuals / M4
01-Aug0930JulS&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI
05-Aug0930JulS&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services PMI
06-Aug0930JulS&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
07-Aug1200---Bank Of England Interest Rate
07-Aug1230---BOE Press Conference
07-Aug1400JulDecision Maker Panel data
12-Aug0001JulBRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
12-Aug0700Jun/JulLabour Market Survey
14-Aug0700Q2 / JunGDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction

LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jul-23 05:18
DateTimeCountryEvent
23-Jul1500EUConsumer Confidence Indicator (p)
24-Jul0700DEGFK Consumer Climate
24-Jul0745FRManufacturing Sentiment
24-Jul0800ESPPI
24-Jul0815FRS&P Global Flash PMI
24-Jul0830DES&P Global Flash PMI
24-Jul0900EUS&P Global Flash PMI
24-Jul1315EUECB Decision
24-Jul1345EUECB Press Conference
25-Jul0745FRConsumer Sentiment
25-Jul0900EUM3
25-Jul0900ITISTAT Consumer Confidence
25-Jul0900ITISTAT Business Confidence
25-Jul0900DEIFO Business Climate Index
25-Jul1400BEBNB Business Confidence
29-Jul0800ESGDP (p)
29-Jul0900EUECB Consumer Expectations Survey

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

Jul-23 05:15
  • RES 4: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
  • RES 3: 1.1899 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
  • RES 1: 1.1760/1829 High Jul 22 / 01 and the bull trigger 
  • PRICE: 1.1734 @ 06:14 BST Jul 23
  • SUP 1: 1.1660/1557 20-day EMA / Low Jul 17
  • SUP 2: 1.1534 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.1446 Low Jun 19
  • SUP 4: 1.1405 Low Jun 11  

EURUSD maintains a firmer tone having recovered from 1.1557, the Jul 17 low. Recent weakness between Jul 1 - 17 appears to have been a correction. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA , at 1.1534. A clear break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. Note that trend indicators continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and the bull trigger.