US HEALTHCARE: Teva: Launches first generic GLP-1 drug
(TEVA; Ba1/BB Pos/BB+)
Teva Launches First Generic GLP-1 but this is not a generic "Ozempic". Credit Neutral
• Teva announced the FDA approval of a generic version of Saxenda GLP-1 medication. This drug was originally developed by Novo Nordisk and was a pre-cursor to the more popular GLP-1 medication Ozempic.
• In FY24, Saxenda generated approximately $1bn of global revenues for Novo compared to almost $18bn for Ozempic.
• Saxenda was originally approved by the FDA in 2014 for chronic weight management in adults with obesity. We note that Saxenda was never approved for treating Type-2 Diabetes which is the primary use for Ozempic.
• Saxenda is a once-daily injection compared to a weekly injection for Ozempic. The average weight loss observed with Saxenda is also significantly less that the 15%-20% observed with Ozempic.
• While this news is certainly headline-worthy for Teva, we note this approval will not likely impact sales of the current GLP-1 leaders such as Ozempic and Wegovy. We also note that the current US patents for Ozempic and Wegovy last at least until 2032 - primarily for the active ingredient Semaglutide.
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MACRO OUTLOOK: IMF Increases US and China Growth F'casts, But Risks To Downside
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday boosted U.S. and China growth forecasts, citing a de-escalation of tariffs and increased fiscal stimulus while warning global growth is at risk because of trade disputes.
- America's growth estimate moved up a tenth to 1.9% this year and 0.3pp next year to 2% in the July World Economic Outlook update from the last projection in April. Donald Trump's recent fiscal package will raise annual growth 0.5pp on average through 2030, though the report warned investors may react badly to an unsustainable fiscal path.
- The agreement temporarily lowering US tariffs on China and fiscal stimulus boosts growth in the world's second-largest economy this year by 0.8pp to 4.8%. Growth in 2026 in the IMF projection is also revised up 0.2pp to 4.2%, reflecting lower effective tariffs.
- Global prospects have improved slightly in recent months in spite of the U.S.-led trade war and the IMF said risks remain tilted to the downside. "The global economy has continued to hold steady, but the composition of activity points to distortions from tariffs, rather than underlying robustness," the IMF report said.
MNI:US MAY FHFA HPI SA -0.2% V -0.3% APR; +2.8% Y/Y
- MNI:US MAY FHFA HPI SA -0.2% V -0.3% APR; +2.8% Y/Y
TARIFFS: Lutnick Suggests Pharma Tariffs Due Within 2 Weeks
Headlines from Commerce Secretary and Trade Hawk Lutnick:
- "*LUTNICK: TRUMP WILL ANNOUNCE PHARMA POLICY IN NEXT TWO WEEKS" Bloomberg
- "*LUTNICK: WILL BE A 'MASSIVE' TARIFF IF PHARMA NOT MADE IN US" Bloomberg
A reminder that back at the start of July, Trump threatened to impose up to 200% tariffs on pharma products "very soon". However, the administration would "give people about a year, year and a half" to incentivize production relocation into the US
No immediate reaction in USDCHF nor the 10-year IRISH/Bund spread to these headlines - Ireland and Switzerland are very exposed to the pharma industry, and consequently tariff policy.
