NZ saw the second consecutive quarterly improvement in its merchandise terms of trade in Q2. It rose 2.1% q/q to be down 1.7% y/y after a trough of -10.7% y/y in Q4 2023, but there was a sharp deterioration in the services terms of trade of 8.6% q/q and 5.7% y/y. Net exports of goods are likely to weigh on Q2 GDP.
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
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Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and Thursday’s gains reinforce this condition. Recent gains resulted in a break of 1.3792, the Jun 11 high, and more recently, a print above key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. The trend condition is overbought, however, the break of 1.3846 strengthens the bull theme and opens 1.3899, the Nov 1 ‘23 high and a key resistance. Firm support lies at 1.3718, the 50-day EMA.
Another Fed rate call change, this one by Nomura - who are still a little more conservative on the pace and magnitude cuts than some others in the wake of the July employment report. They now see: