CANADA DATA: Teranet-National Bank House Prices See Second Strongest M/M Increase
Aug-18 12:52
- The Teranet-National Bank house price index saw a “sharp” 2.4% M/M increase in July in seasonally adjusted terms.
- Its the second-highest growth rate recorded in a single month (strongest was 3.1% in Jul’06), and follows 2.0% M/M in June.
- The series corroborates the sharp increases seen in the existing home sales data, and helps close the gap to just 4% below the Apr’22 peak (for Teranet, -10% for existing home sales after a deeper decline).
- The strong rebound in prices comes with supply struggling to rebound as activity closes with high interest rates.
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GILTS: Futures Off Best Levels, Curve Off Steeps, Outperformance Remains Comfortable Post-CPI
Jul-19 12:48
Gilt futures topped out shortly after another round of sub-par demand at today’s DMO auction, with this morning’s rally providing some headwinds for takedown there. Still, UK paper comfortably outperforms global core FI counterparts on the day owing to the softer than expected CPI print, with futures off pullback lows.
- That leaves the futures contract +175 or so on the day, after bulls failed to force a challenge of 98.00.
- Cash Gilts run 15-22.5bp richer across the major benchmarks, with the short end off richest levels of the session and the wider curve away from session steeps.
- SONIA futures sit 3.5-31bp richer through the reds, with the reds outperforming on the strip.
- BoE-dated OIS pricing for next month’s MPC meeting continues to indicate near 50/50 odds of a follow up 50bp hike and terminal policy rate pricing continues to trade around 5.90%, as the strip holds flatter on the day.
- Comments from BoE’s Ramsden, on the topic of quantitative tightening, provides the major domestic point of interest from here (text will be released at 17:00 London with a Q&A session to follow).
US TSY FUTURES: Post-Housing Starts/Build Permits Reaction
Jul-19 12:36
- Delayed reaction, Treasury futures inching higher after both Housing Starts (1.434M vs. 1.480M est, May down revised to 1.559M from 1.631M), Build Permits (1.440M vs. 1.5M est) come out softer than expected.
- Still off early London session highs, Sep'23 10Y futures trading 113-03.5 +11.5 -- nearing initial resistance recent of 113-08 - July 18 high and best level since June 29.
- The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and attention turns to a key resistance area at the 50-day EMA, at 113-09+. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish theme.
MNI: US JUN HOUSING STARTS 1.434M; PERMITS 1.440M
Jul-19 12:30
- MNI: US JUN HOUSING STARTS 1.434M; PERMITS 1.440M
- US MAY STARTS REVISED TO 1.559M; PERMITS 1.496M
- US JUN HOUSING COMPLETIONS 1.468M; MAY 1.518M (REV)
