US DATA: Tepid ADP Employment, Hard To Pin Directly On Tariff Disruption
Apr-30 12:27
- ADP employment was softer than expected in April at 62k (sa, cons 115k) after a downward revised 147k (initial 155k) in March.
- It’s the fourth weakest seasonally adjusted monthly increase since Jul 2020 and sees a continuation of a trend softening seen since late 2024 - see chart.
- Consensus currently stands at 122k for private payrolls in the April report released Friday. In the previous three months, ADP undershot private payrolls by 62k in Mar and 32k in Feb but overshot by 107k in Jan (prior to two-month revisions in Friday’s release).
- From the ADP press release: "Education and health services, information, and professional and business services lost jobs, while hiring in other sectors was moderate."
- "Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.”
- Interestingly, there don’t look to be clear cut signs of a tariff-related slowdown. Smallest businesses of 1-19 employees still saw a 20k increase in headcount (with the theory that smallest companies will be most vulnerable to the need for cash to meet sudden cost increases) although those with 20-49 employees did see a second monthly decline with -9k.
- Further, trade, transport & utilities saw the second strongest sector for hiring (+21k).
- Pay details were mixed. Job stayers saw 4.5% Y/Y median pay growth after 4.6% in March but job changer pay growth accelerated two tenths to 6.9% Y/Y for the highest since Dec.
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GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Week Ahead 31 March-6 April
Mar-31 12:26
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MNI's Political Risk team has published its Week Ahead article, looking at some of the major political events scheduled to take place over the next seven days. Includes information on US President Donald Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs on 'Liberation Day', French far-right politician Marine Le Pen's conviction and ban from running for public office that has upended the 2027 presidential election race, and a meeting between Russia and China's foreign ministers in Moscow.
Full article attached below:
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: DBJ 5Y SOFR on Tap
Mar-31 12:24
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 03/31 $Benchmark DBJ 5Y SOFR+62a
- 03/31 $Benchmark Japan Tobacco +3Y, +5Y, +10Y investor calls
- 03/31 $Benchmark Gold Fields 10Y investor calls
- 03/31 $Benchmark Caf perpNC5.5 investor calls
- Expected Tuesday:
- 04/01 $Benchmark NRW Bank 5Y SOFR+49a
EFSF ISSUANCE: Syndication: 5-year May-30: Priced
Mar-31 12:21
- Reoffer: 99.814 to yield 2.664%
- Size: E5bln
- Final Spread set earlier: MS+30bps (guidance was MS+32bps area)
- Books closed in excess of E19.5bln (ex JLM interest)
- Hedge ratio 99% vs 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl. Spot ref 100.461 + 36.5bp
- Maturity: 07-May-2030
- Settlement: 07-Apr-2025 (T+5)
- Coupon: Long first to 07-May-2026
- Bookrunners: CITI/CACIB(DM/B&D)/SG
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAT6
- Timing: TOE 13:14BST / 14:14CET. FTT immediately.
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