NATGAS: Temporary Bulgaria-Romania Alternate Gas Entry Point

• RES 4: 114-02   High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 113-29   High Oct 22
• RES 2: 113-18+ High Oct 28 
• RES 1: 113-03   20-day EMA 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-26 @ 10:41 GMT Nov 4 
• SUP 1: 112-16   Low Oct 30 
• SUP 2: 112-14   Low Oct 9
• SUP 3: 112-06   Low Sep 25 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 111-30+ Trendline support drawn from the May 22 low 

Recent weakness in Treasuries undermines a bullish theme. The move down has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 112-26+, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement near-term. A continuation lower would open 112-06, the  Sep 25 low and the next key support. The contract needs to trade above 113-18+, the Oct 28 high to signal a possible bullish reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 114-02, the Oct 17 high.

SX5E (19th Dec) 5700/5300ps 1x1.5, traded for 109.5 in 5k (5kx7.5k).

Speaker of the House of Representatives Martin Bosma will meet with party leaders this afternoon from 16:00CET (10:00ET, 15:00GMT) as the first efforts to form a new gov't coalition begin. The final postal votes were tallied on 3 Nov, the liberal progressive Democrats 66 (D66) securing top spot in the election by 28,455 votes over the far-right populist Party for Freedom (PVV). 

• D66 winning top spot is important concerning the process of forming a coalition. It means that their 'scout', likely former Deputy PM Wouter Koolmees, will be appointed by Bosma and from next week will begin to canvass parties on the nature of the gov't they want to see formed. The new parliament convenes for the first time on 12 Nov.
• D66 leader Rob Jetten has stated his preference for a broad centrist four-party coalition involving D66, the centre-left environmentalist GreenLeft-Labour Party (GL-PvdA), the liberal conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), and centrist Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA). This is the only four-party combination to cross the 76-seat majority threshold that does not include the PVV.
• However, Jetten and D66 face a difficult challenge in getting the VVD on board. Party leader Dilan Yeşilgöz has stated her preference for a centre-right coalition, substituting GL-PvdA with the right-wing JA21. Such a coalition would hold 75 seats, one short of a majority. However, Yeşilgöz claims it would be stable as the opposition (ranging from far-left to far-right) would not be able to unite into a cohesive bloc. 

Chart 1. 2023 and 2025 House of Representatives Election Results, Seats

Source: NOS, Kiesraad, MNI