ASIA STOCKS: Taiwan Inflows Remain The Standout (+2bn In The Past Week)
Yesterday, continued positive inflow momentum to Taiwan remained the standout in the region. The past 5 trading days has seen just over $2bn in net offshore inflows for the country. Optimism around TSMC's quarterly earnings may be spurring continued inflow momentum. Earlier the company reported a better than expected 39% rise June quarter revenue. South Korean inflows remained positive, albeit just, with the local Kospi index continuing to struggle above the 3200 level. In early dealings today the index is off around 1%.
- Elsewhere, Indonesia's trade deal with the US, didn't provide a positive impetus to offshore inflow momentum, with recent negative trends continuing. The BI also cut rates yesterday. The local equity index is close in on recent highs above 7200.
- Thailand saw positive inflow momentum, driving outperformance against other SEA economies over the past week.
Table 1: Asian Markets Net Equity Flows
| Yesterday | Past 5 Trading Days | 2025 To Date | |
| South Korea (USDmn) | 17 | 1109 | -8120 |
| Taiwan (USDmn) | 510 | 2043 | -885 |
| India (USDmn)* | -20 | -459 | -8440 |
| Indonesia (USDmn) | -67 | -153 | -3659 |
| Thailand (USDmn) | 68 | 106 | -2327 |
| Malaysia (USDmn) | -41 | -96 | -2854 |
| Philippines (USDmn) | -61 | -65 | -617 |
| Total (USDmn) | 406 | 2487 | -26902 |
| * Data Up To July 15 |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
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AUSSIE BONDS: Jun-54 Supply Faces A Similar Yield But A Steeper Curve
The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) will today offer A$300 million of the 4.75% 21 June 2054 Treasury Bond. This line was last tapped on 6 May 2025 for the same amount. Investor demand at today’s auction will likely be shaped by several key factors:
- The bond’s outright yield is broadly unchanged from the previous auction, though it remains around 20bps below the peak reached in May.
- Sentiment toward longer-dated global bonds remains cautious, which may temper demand.
- However, the 10s/30s yield curve is slightly steeper than at the last auction, and now sits at its steepest level since late 2021 — a potentially supportive technical factor.
- Overall, pricing is expected to remain firm, underpinned by a stable yield profile and a more attractive curve backdrop.
- Results are due at 0200 BST / 1100 AEST.
AUSSIE BONDS: AUCTION PREVIEW: ACGB Jun-54 Supply Due
The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) will today sell A$300mn of the 4.75% 21 June 2054 Treasury Bond. The line was last sold on 6 May 2025 for A$300mn. The sale drew an average yield of 4.9633%, at a high yield of 4.9700% and was covered 2.4833x. There were 57 bidders, 26 of which were successful and 26 were allocated in full. The amount allotted at the highest yield as a percentage of the bid at that yield was 100%.
- This week's ACGB supply is at the top end of the recent average weekly issuance of $1500-2000mn, with A$900mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$800mn of the 1.00% 21 December 2030 bond on Friday.
- According to the Budget 2025-26 Issuance Program Update from the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM), total issuance of Treasury Bonds (including Green Treasury Bonds) in 2025-26 is expected to be around $150 billion. Issuance of Treasury Indexed Bonds by tender is expected to be between $2 billion and $3 billion (additional issuance by syndication may be considered).
- For 2024-25, issuance of Treasury Bonds has been revised to around $100 billion, including around $2 billion of Green Treasury Bonds. Treasury-Indexed Bond issuance will be around $3 billion.
- Results are due at 0200 BST / 1100 AEST.
LNG: Europe Remains Vulnerable To Middle East Developments
European natural gas rose to EUR 39.61, the high for June, on Monday following Israeli attacks on Iran’s Fajr Jam Gas Refinery and South Pars gas field, which is one of the largest in the world. Prices then trended lower to EUR 37.34 and finished up 0.25% to EUR 37.99 to be 11% higher this month. Energy prices moderated following news that Iran wanted to resume negotiations on a nuclear deal and to keep the US out of its conflict with Israel but strikes by both sides have continued.
- US President Trump commented that Iran should have signed a nuclear deal when it had the chance and that people should evacuate Tehran. This has boosted oil prices during today’s APAC session with WTI currently up 2.0% to $73.20/bbl.
- European prices are likely to remain sensitive to developments in the region given its reliance on global supplies and significant refilling needs. The risk remains that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which sees around 20% of global LNG exports, is closed. Shipments in the area are already being disrupted with new orders being put on hold.
- Bloomberg reported that today the European Commission will propose a plan to end the EU’s reliance on Russian gas by end 2027. It would be gradual starting in January 2026 and would also include a ban on services to Russian companies at EU LNG terminals.
- US gas jumped 4.5% to $3.74 on Monday to be up 8.5% in June. The move was driven by forecasts for warmer weather towards the end of the month with the eastern US expected to experience a heatwave, according to Atmospheric G2, thus increasing the prospect of higher cooling demand.
