SWITZERLAND DATA: Swiss January CPI Won't Move The Needle For SNB
Swiss CPI inflation printed in line consensus on the yearly measure at 0.1% in January (vs 0.1% cons and prior), and -0.058% M/M (0.0% cons). Core CPI was also in line with consensus, at 0.5% Y/Y (vs 0.5% cons and prior).
- This means Q1 inflation starts off in line with the SNB forecast, confirming that the most probable path for SNB policy ahead is a hold for the foreseeable future. Despite this, a more material undershoot with repeated readings below 0% would likely be needed for the SNB to cut into negative territory.
- On weightings, the statistics office comments: "In 2026, the "healthcare" division was weighted at 17.4%, a major increase compared with 15.6% the previous year. This is due to the new item "inpatient long-term care services". The weighting of the “alcoholic beverages and tobacco” division has increased from 2.5% to 3.5%, owing to the newly applied weighting sources. The weighting of the “housing and energy” division has decreased (from 27.0% to 25.6%), as has that of “recreation, sport and culture” (from 8.9% to 7.5%)."
- Switzerland has also switched to ECOICOP2, meaning there are now 13 divisions instead of 12 previously on the main split. Also, some items moved from category to category.
- The main categories on first sight appear to indicate a multitude of moving parts, with higher energy outweighing lower services. Key categories below (all Y/Y):
- Domestic 0.5% vs 0.5% prior
- Imported -1.5% vs -1.6% prior
- Services 0.9% vs 1.2% prior
- Goods -1.3% vs -1.7% prior
- Energy and fuels -4.3% vs -5.3% prior
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H6) Bullish Price Sequence
- RES 4: 7089.25 1.000 proj of the Dec 18 - 26 - Jan 2 price swing
- RES 3: 7080.92 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 7036.74 0.764 proj of the Dec 18 - 26 - Jan 2 price swing
- RES 1: 7036.25 High Jan 13
- PRICE: 6988.00 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 6947.24/6891.99 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 6771.50 Low Dec 18 and a key support
- SUP 3: 6684.50 Low Nov 24
- SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 and a reversal trigger
The trend structure in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and a fresh cycle high yesterday reinforces current conditions.The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 7036.74, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 6947.24, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 6891.99.
EURJPY TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Channel Top
- RES 4: 186.83 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 3: 186.41 2.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 2: 185.77 2.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 185.57 Intraday high
- PRICE: 185.40 @ 07:28 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 183.51/182.64 20-day EMA / Low Jan 8
- SUP 2: 182.25 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 181.74 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 180.50 Low Dec 8
The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish. The cross has this week traded to a fresh cycle high, clearing resistance at 184.92, the Dec 22 high. The move higher confirms a recent bull flag on the daily chart and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. This signals scope for a climb towards 186.83, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. Key support to watch lies at 181.74, the 50-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 160.21 2.236 proj of the Dec 5 - 9 - 16 price swing
- RES 3: 160.00 3.000 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 2: 159.60 2.000 proj of the Dec 5 - 9 - 16 price swing
- RES 1: 159.45 Intraday high
- PRICE: 159.13 @ 07:17 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 156.90/155.61 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 154.35 Low Dec 5 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 153.62 Low Nov 14
- SUP 4: 152.82 Low Nov 7
USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The pair has cleared resistance at 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on the 160.00 handle next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 155.61, the 50-day EMA.
