POWER: Swiss Hydro Stocks Fall to 73.9% of Capacity
Nov-18 15:34
Swiss hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 46 – decreased by 2.6 percentage points last week to 73.9% of capacity, BFE data showed.
- Stocks declined by 1.4 percentage points the week prior.
- The deficit to last year’s level narrowed to 3.4 points, from 5.2 points the week before.
- The deficit to the five-year average was largely stable at 7.6 points, while the deficit to the ten-year average widened slightly to 5.6 points, from 5.3 points the week prior.
- Reserves widened the deficit to the five-year average to 7.6 points, from 7.2 points the week before.
- Power demand in Switzerland last week edged down by 204MW to 7.44GW.
- Swiss hydropower generation from pumped storage last week increased by 268MW to 824MW. Output from reservoirs edged also up by 145MW to 1.19GW, while run-of-river generation declined by 270MW on the week to 1.23GW.
- Nuclear generation in Switzerland was broadly stable last week at 1.95GW.
- Alpiq’s 1.02 GW Gösgen nuclear power plant will be offline until 28 February 2026.
- Precipitation in Sion, in the hydro-intensive canton of Valais, totalled 7.4mm last week, below the seasonal average of 34.4mm.
- Snow height at L’Ecreuleuse in canton Valais stood at 80cm on 18 November, with 24cm of new snowfall in the past seven days, White Risk data showed.
- Looking ahead, the latest Bloomberg ECMWF weather forecast for Sion suggests precipitation to total 18.6mm this week, below the seasonal average of 30.7mm.
- The latest Swiss hydro balance is forecast to end this week at -1.66TWh. The balance will further narrow to -2.11TWh as of 3 December.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
