EU FINANCIALS: Swedbank (SWEDA Aa3 Pos/A+ Pos/AA) - Q4 2024 Results
Swedbank (SWEDA Aa3 Pos/A+ Pos/AA) - Q4 2024 Results
Consensus beat, as interest expense falls faster than expected
- Net interest income was marginally higher than Q3 at SEK12,274mn, forming most of the beat to consensus. Net interest expense fell as fast as net interest income to maintain the net number. Commission and fee income was flat on Q3 at SEK4,285m.
- Expenses rose almost 20%, due to a meaningful impairment charge, but ex this were up 8.6% QoQ on Q3 but flat on Q4 23.
- CET1 was 0.6% lower to 19.8%, due to both RWA growth and anticipated dividends exceeding Net Income.
- Provisions and asset quality are barely worth mentioning at this stage other than to say they are very good, with a net with back SEK394mn for the quarter. Total impaired loans did climb 5bps a bit to 0.65%.
Rating outlook: On balance sheet strength the upgrades are deserved, but Agencies are waiting for confirmation that "
previous governance and cultural shortcomings" do not have create further negative effects.
Valuation: The Sr Prefs and Sr Non-Prefs trade in line with higher quality peers. The tier two bonds screen slightly expensive for their rating, but the tow positive creating rating outlooks which may be converted somewhat make up for that.
Call at 8:00am London time - https://www.swedbank.com/investor-relations/reports-and-presentations/interim-reports.html
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AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6482 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6370 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6239 @ 06:21 GMT Dec 24
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows.Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6370, the 20-day EMA.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
No auctions, syndications or redemptions are expected to be held in the upcoming week. Coupon payments are negligible.
For a summary of 2025 funding plans see the PDF here: EZ241224.pdf
BTP TECHS: (H5) Retracement Mode
- RES 4: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 122.85/123.34 High Dec 12 / 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 121.28 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 120.16 @ Close Dec 23
- SUP 1: 120.10 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 119.67 61.8% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 119.11 Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
A corrective cycle in BTP futures has resulted in a pullback from its recent highs and the Dec 19 gap lower highlights potential for a continuation near-term. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 119.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 121.28, the 20-day EMA.
