USDCAD TECHS: Support At The February Lows Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
- RES 3: 1.3617 High Mar 29
- RES 2: 1.3549 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3420/3448 Low Apr 17 / High Apr 13
- PRICE: 1.3409 @ 16:41 BST Apr 17
- SUP 1: 1.3302 Low Apr 14
- SUP 2: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
- SUP 3: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 2022
USDCAD remains bearish and last week’s sell-off confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Support at 1.3407, the Apr 4 low has been cleared and this maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.3275 - mid-February lows and 1.3262, the Feb 2 low. Note that the RSI is close to flagging the pair as technically oversold for the first time in over 18 months. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3407.
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USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
- RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3733 @ 16:44 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 1.3652 Low Mar 14
- SUP 2: 1.3562 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
- SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21
The recent move lower in USDCAD appears to be a correction and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains strengthened a bullish theme. Price has cleared the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and traded above 1.3800. Scope is seen for gains towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.3652, Tuesday’s low. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
- RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
- RES 2: 0.6784/87 High Mar 1 and a key resistance / 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6748 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 0.6696 @ 16:43 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish despite the recent recovery - a shallow correction. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. The break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and price has breached key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.
