NATURAL GAS: Strong TTF Time Spreads with Front Sensitive to Supply Changes

TTF time spreads remain stable with European winter risks from cold weather in Europe and Asia, unplanned supply disruptions and a China demand recovery. The warm Autumn and start to the winter heating season has enabled the near term risk to ease with storage near capacity and high LNG volumes at sea likely to help ease the impact of the first cold spell in Europe.

• Near term TTF prices remain volatile as markets closely watch for supply disruption from the Middle East amid concerns for an escalation of the conflict in Israel. Israel has resumed gas flows to Egypt from its 12.4 bcm/y Leviathan gas field, according to Argus. The return comes after recent technical issues at the 6.5 bcm/y Karish gas field meant that Leviathan flows to Egypt were redirected to prioritise domestic supply.
• The Q1 2024 TTF contract is maintaining a premium over the Dec23 contract at around +2.0Є/MWh today having varied between +1.3€/MWh and +2.4€/MWh in the last couple of months.
• The Q1 2025 -Q1 2024 spread is back up to over +2.4€/MWh from +1.1€/MWh at the start of the week with supplies largely expected to remain tight into next year. The Win24-Sum24 spread is currently around +3.4€/MWh after closing to +2.5€/MWh in mid October.
• The TTF front month 30 day historical is holding around steady 104% this week.
  • TTF DEC 23 down -0.6% at 47.45€/MWh
  • TTF Q1 24 down -0.9% at 49.45€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 down -0.6% at 47.9€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 down -0.8% at 51.3€/MWh