ZAR: Strong Showing From Gold Helps Rand Reverse Losses Linked To Removal Of Emergency Declaration
Apr-05 13:13
Strong performance from the yellow metal keeps a lid on USD/ZAR, with the pair returning into negative territory to last trade -285 pips at ZAR17.9019. Familiar technical levels remain in play, with the pair reluctant to test trendline support-turned-resistance at ZAR17.9769.
- Spot gold trades +10.9 at $2,031/oz. with a BBG gauge of precious metals performance sitting ~0.3% higher on the day, as both refreshed respective cyclical highs and continue to trade near best levels of the session.
- The Rand had earlier erased its initial gains in reaction to the news that South Africa lifted a national state of disaster declared in response to the energy crisis, even as there has been no breakthrough in addressing the underlying issues.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, 5s/10Y Ultra Steepener
Mar-06 12:55
- +5,500 FVM3 106-25.75, post-time offer at 0746:31ET vs.
- -2,600 UXYM3 117-02, sell-through 117-03 post-time bid
US TSYS: What to Watch: Fed Chair Semi-Annual Policy Testimony; NFP
Mar-06 12:46
Monday's factory orders data a precursor to Fed Chairman Powell's two day, semi-annual testimony to Congress Tue-Wed, US Pres Biden 2024 budget proposal out Thu, Employment read for Feb this Friday. Data at 1000ET:
- Factory Orders (1.8%, -1.8%); Ex Trans (-1.2%, 1.0%)
- Durable Goods Orders (-4.5%, -4.5%); Ex Trans (0.7%, 0.7%)
- Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (0.8%, --); Ship Nondef Ex Air (1.1%, --)
- US Tsys auctions: $57B 13W, $48B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET
- Salient events later in the week:
- Fed Chair Powell semi-annual mon-pol report to Congress, Tue 1000ET
- Fed Chair Powell report to Congress: House Fncl Srvcs, Wed 1000ET
- ADP employment data for Feb (106k prior, 200k est), Wed 0815ET
- NFP employment data for Feb (517k prior, 200k est), Fri 0830ET
- Central banks: RBA on Tuesday, NOC Wednesday.
ECB: Peak Depo Rate Pricing Hits New Cycle High Above 4.07%
Mar-06 12:45
Following those Holzmann comments eyeing 200bp of further increases (50bp x 4), peak ECB depo rate pricing briefly pushed just above 4.07% for Q4 2023.
- That marked a new cycle peak, and implies 157bp of hikes from current levels (and no rate cuts in 2023).
- Peak pricing has since pulled back by 3-4 basis points, but overall: 50bp is basically a lock for March's ECB, with the probability of 50bp (vs 25bp) in May at a little over 70%.
- A cumulative 125bp of hikes is currently priced through June, with the 143bp through July is 57bp below Holzmann's rate path.
