US DATA: Steadying Claims Data Continue To Point To Solid Labor Market
Feb-13 19:45
Weekly jobless claims data continue to point to labor market solidity. Initial claims in the Feb 8 week fell more than expected to 213k (216k expected, 220k prior rev from 219k), while continuing claims in the Feb 1 week fell sharply to 1,850k (1,882k expected, 1,886k prior unrevised).
- For initial, that largely reversed the prior week's rise (208k to 220k), nudging the 4-week moving average down to 216k from 217k prior.
- Continuing meanwhile saw a continuation of the recent pattern of a decline in claims following a weekly rise: this pattern has been observed in every 2-week period since mid-October 2024. And like initial claims, continuing claims have steadied out into a fairly predictable range, of roughly 1,850k-1,900k (the average since the start of October 2024 is 1,873k).
- On a state-by-state basis, California saw the biggest increase in initial claims (+1.7k), but this was outweighed by drops in New York (3k)and Pennsylvania (2.9k) . For continuing, outsized drops were seen in Texas (-15.3k), Pennsylvania (-7.8k), California (-7.1k) and Florida (-6.1k). These figures mainly point to continued erratic claims from California, probably related to the wildfires in January (initial claims unusually jumped 60k mid-month).
- The main conclusion is that the weekly claims reports continue to provide evidence that the labor market is in solid shape - or as Fed Chair Powell put it in his semi-annual Congressional testimony, "very strong".
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Bearish Trend Structure
Jan-14 19:44
- RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 109-24+ 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 108-21+/109-06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31
- PRICE: 107-11+ @ 19:33 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 107-06 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and the needle points south. Monday’s bearish start to the week, has once again, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 107-04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-21+, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective.
COMMODITIES: Crude Declines, Gold Holding On To Bulk Of Recent Gains
Jan-14 19:33
- WTI crude prices are easing lower today as prices readjust following a rally up to a high of $79.27/bbl yesterday. Recent gains have been driven by fresh US sanctions on Russia.
- WTI Feb 25 is down by 1.4% at $77.7/bbl.
- The Wall Street Journal reports that President-elect Donald Trump is preparing a set of energy-related executive orders, to sign upon his inauguration on Jan 20, that would unwind Biden administration rules on offshore/onshore drilling on federal lands, tailpipe emissions, and LNG exports approval.
- Meanwhile, a potential drop in supply from sanctions against Russia and Iran are challenging the possibility of a market surplus this year, as previously forecast by some analysts.
- The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish, with sights on $79.59, the Jul 5 ‘24 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose the 20-day EMA, at $73.16.
- Spot gold has risen by 0.4% to $2,673/oz today.
- UBS analysts expect gold to hit a fresh record high this year amid trade and geopolitical uncertainties, forecasting the yellow metal to reach $2,850 by year-end.
- While recent gains in gold appear corrective for now, the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of last week’s gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term.
- A stronger recovery would open $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance.
PIPELINE: Late Corporate Issuance Roundup: $19.75B to Price Tuesday
Jan-14 19:28
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/14 $3.5B *British Colombia 3Y SOFR+45
- 01/14 $3B *KFW +5Y +40
- 01/14 $2.5B #BNG Bank 5Y SOFR+47
- 01/14 $2.5B *CADES 5Y SOFR+68, upsized from $2B
- 01/14 $2B #Adobe $800M 3Y +30, $700M 5Y +40, $500M 10Y +55
- 01/14 $2B *CAF 5Y SOFR+82
- 01/14 $2B *IFC 3Y SOFR+29
- 01/14 $1.25B #BFCM $900M 5Y +95, $350M 5Y SOFR+123
- 01/14 $500M Blackstone Private Cr Fund 7Y +170
- 01/14 $500M #Hyundai 3Y +80
