FED: Statement: 1, 2, or 3 Dissenters? (2/2)

For the full preview including summaries of analyst expectations click here.

• It’s a huge week for UK data with labour market data (Tuesday), inflation data (Wednesday) as well as flash PMIs, retail sales and public finance data on Friday.
• In terms of market reaction, we think the easiest read is likely to come from labour market data where consensus expectations are aligned with the expectations from the February MPR. There will be one more labour market print ahead of the March MPC decision, but a print in line with expectations keeps a March cut very much in play.
• Things are trickier on the inflation side. The Bank’s updated staff forecasts put January headline CPI at 2.90%Y/Y which is a full tenth below consensus expectations of 3.0%Y/Y, and it seems as though this is pretty broad-based across categories. We look at the potential for market reaction and also the details of the print.
• In addition, we summarise 17 sellside views.

• Reoffer: 101.348 to yield 3.115%
• Size: E750mln
• Books closed in excess of E6.8bln (inc E372.5mln JLM interest)
• Spread set earlier at MS+35bps (guidance was MS+40bp area then MS+37bp area)
• Hedge ratio: 104% vs 2.60% Aug-35 Bund (ref 99.06 / 2.712 / +40.3bp)
• Settlement: 23 February, 2026 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: BNP PARIBAS (B&D), Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, J.P. Morgan
• Timing: TOE 16:21GMT / 17:21CET. FTT immediately

Source: Market source / MNI colour

• EUR/USD: Feb18 $1.1900-20(E1.9bln); Feb19 $1.1725(E1.5bln), $1.1750(E1.5bln) $1.1790-00(E3.4bln), $1.1850(E1.2bln), $1.2000(E2.3bln), $1.2100(E1.3bln)
• USD/JPY: Feb19 Y153.00($2.7bln), Y155.00($1.4bln)
• AUD/USD: Feb18 $0.6980-95(A$1.2bln)
• USD/CAD: Feb18 C$1.3600($1.4bln)