UK: Starmer Faces PMQs Unsure Of Cabinet Support & w/Election Peril Ahead (2/2)
Apr-22 10:30
Churn in No.10 Downing Street has been relatively commonplace over the past decade, with David Camer...
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Fed Speakers Goolsbee, Miran, Construct Spend
Mar-23 10:29
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 03/23 0830 Chicago Fed Goolsbee interview on CNBC Squawk Box
- 03/23 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (0.18, 0.04)
- 03/23 0845 Fed Governor Miran on Bbg TV
- 03/23 1000 Construction Spending MoM (0.3%, 0.1%)
- 03/23 1130 US Tsy $89B 13W & $77B 26W bill auctions
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
STIR: 80% Chance Of Fed Hike This Year
Mar-23 10:25
- US rates have seen another marked shift lower overnight, with a 25bp hike this year more than 80% priced as the 1944ET deadline looms for President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz.
- Cumulative hikes from 3.64% effective: 5bp Apr, 10bp Jun, 12.5bp Jul, 17.5bp Sep, 21bp Oct, 20bp Dec and 12.5bp Jun 2027.
- SOFR futures continue to see losses concentrated around the Z6-H7 area, currently down as much as 14 ticks in the H7.
- Terminal implied yields see more muted daily moves but nevertheless continue to push higher, currently 3.525% (H8, +4.5bp) having last closed higher in early Apr 2025.
- Fed Governor Miran (voter, dovish dissenter) speaks on BBG TV at 0845ET after mixed post-FOMC comments from other dovish permanent voters on Friday: Waller dialled back his dovishness but Bowman stuck with three 2026 cuts in her March SEP entry. Miran has in the past chosen to avoid writing a traditional dissenting statement so expect him to lay out his rationale here instead.
EQUITIES: Large Estoxx Put Spread
Mar-23 10:25
SX5E (15th May) 4775/4725ps, bought for 7.2 in 22k.
