US TSYS: Stable Price Action, Ongoing US/Iran Negotiation Focus

Mixed SOFR/Treasury options leaning bullish with put unwinds and pick-up in call buying Monday, underlying futures firmer near session highs (TYM6 +15 at 111-28 vs. -29 high). Projected rate cut pricing look steady to higher vs. late Friday lvls (*): Mar'26 at -.2bp, Apr'26 -.7bp, Jun'26 at -5.6bp (-5.9bp), Jul'26 at -10.7bp (-10.2bp), Sep'26 at -16bp (-13.7bp). The first 25bp rate cut has returned to late 2026 vs. June 2027 last week.

• SOFR Options:
  • Block, 5,000 SFRZ6 96.00/96.62 put spds, 22.5 vs. 96.55/0.30%
  • Block, 6,250 SFRU6 96.43 puts, 17.0 vs. 96.475/0.46%
  • Block, 40,000 0QU6 95.87 puts, 7.25/splits vs. 96.68/0.19%, additional 20k on screen
  • +4,000 SFRM6 97.00 calls, 1.75
  • -5,000 SFRZ6 96.25/96.75 put spds 6.0 over 97.12/97.25 call spds
  • +15,000 SFRN6 96.25/96.75 call spds vs. 5,000 SFRN6 96.31 puts
  • 1,500 SFRU6 96.31/96.56 put spds ref 96.475
  • 8,000 SFRZ6 95.75/96.00 put spds vs. 96.75/97.00 call spds
  • 6,000 SFRJ6 96.43/96.56/96.62/96.81 broken call condors, 1.0 ref 96.365
  • -3,000 SFRZ6 95.50 puts, 6.25 vs. 96.53/0.13%
  • -2,500 SFRZ6 96.12/96.37 put spds, 7.25
  • 2,000 0QM6 96.87/97.00 call spds, 4.0 vs. 96.655/0.07%
  • +2,000 SFRN6 96.31 puts, 11.5
• Treasury Options:
  • over 13,500 TYM6 108/110 put spds, 14 ref 111-24
  • 6,000 TYJ6 113 calls, 5 ref 111-24.5
  • +8,500 TYM6 114 calls, 24 ref 111-26, total volume over 15,000
  • over 26,000 FVK6 110.25/110.75 3x2 call spds ref 108-24.25 to -24.25
  • +5,000 TYJ6 112 straddles, 58 
  • 7,100 TYJ6 115.5 calls, 2 ref 112-27
  • 2,300 TYJ6 113/114/114.5 broken call trees, 7
  • +24,000 wk1 TY 112.5 calls, 19 ref 111-26/0.28%
  • 20,000 TYK6 109.5 puts, 13-12 ref 111-25.5
  • over +/-5,000 TYJ6 111 puts, 15-16
  • Block, 4,000 FVJ6 109 risk reversals, 19.5 vs. 108-22/100%
  • +4,500 TUM6 104/104.5/105 call flys, 7 ref 103-31/0.08%
  • over 8,500 USJ6 112.5 puts, 26 last ref 113-30
  • 2,000 TYJ6 113.25 calls ref 111-18
  • -5,000 FVJ6 108.5 puts, 21-20.5 vs. 108-17.5/0.48%
  • 6,000 wk3 TY 112 puts, 40 vs. 111-16/0.70%
  • -10,000 TYJ6 111/112 put spds, 27 ref 111-19

• RES 4: 0.8818 High Nov 26 ‘25
• RES 3: 0.8806 76.4% retracement of the Nov 14 - Feb 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8739/89 High Mar 3 / High Feb 27 and key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 0.8654/8696 High Mar 13 / 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8636 @ 16:06 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 0.8610 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull phase 

A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play. Today’s initial sell-off has resulted in a print below support at 0.8613, the Feb 4 low and bear trigger. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bear theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull phase. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8789, the Feb 27 high. The first important resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA at 0.8698. 

• Risk sentiment kicked off the new week with a positive note, weaker crude prices (WTI -4.86 at 93.85, still elevated since the start of the Iran war, but off last week's near $120 high) underpinning stocks through Monday's session.
• Information Technology sector shares led the broad based rally, semiconductor and hardware makers outperforming with Sandisk and Ciena Corp climbing near 8%, while the following hold 4-5% in lte trade: Micron Technology, Seagate Technology, Western Digital, Teradyne, Intel, Super Micro Computer and Microchip Technology.
• Of note, Meta shares held 2.38% higher after announcing a $27B investment in AI computing capacity from Nebius Group over 5 years, Nebius trades over 15.25% in late trade.
• Consumer Staples and Health Care sector shares led declines in the second half, Bio-Techne Corp and Baxter International weighing on the latter.