RATINGS: Stable Outlooks Up For Review After Hours
Potential rating reviews of note scheduled for after hours on Friday include:
- S&P on Belgium (current rating: AA; Outlook Stable), Finland (current rating: AA+; Outlook Stable), Slovakia (current rating: A+; Outlook Stable) & Turkey (current rating: BB-; Outlook Stable)
- Morningstar DBRS on the European Union (current rating: AAA; Stable Trend)
- Scope Ratings on Cyprus (current rating: A-; Outlook Stable) & Luxembourg (current rating: AAA; Outlook Stable)
- Please use this link to access the indicative sovereign rating review schedule covering the five most notable rating agencies for 2025.
- Note that this schedule is indicative only and ratings can be reviewed on an ad-hoc basis. Rating agencies may also adjust their schedules during the year.
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EQUITIES: The EU Banking Index prints above the 2011 high
- Some small reversals in European Equities, but these are smaller moves.
- Yesterday's high in VGM5 at 5440.00 was rejected on the Cash open, printed a 5440.00 high also today.
- The Banking index (SX7E) has managed to register another print above the 2011 high on the open, but has fallen back towards flat now.
- The next Psychological area of interest for the Index, is at the 200.00 mark.
- Further out would see 206.47, followed by 217.62, the 38.2% retracement of the 2007/2020 range.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
GILTS: Rallying On Softer CPI, Focus Moves To Spring Statement
Gilts rally in the wake of the softer-than-expected CPI data detailed earlier, while the potential for larger-than-expected fiscal spending cuts in today’s Spring Statement has increased following press reports pointing to such a move, as the Chancellor looks to stick to the fiscal rules.
- Our full preview of the Spring Statement is here.
- Futures last ~91.45.
- Our technical analyst notes that the short-term technical outlook in the contract remains bearish.
- Yesterday’s low (90.93) protects key support at the Mar 6 low (90.71).
- Key short-term resistance has been defined at 93.01, the Mar 20 high.
- Yields 3.0-7.5bp lower, curve steepens.
- 2s10s still a couple of bp below the psychological 50bp level, although 5s30s has managed to push above the 100bp mark. Next upside level of note in 5s30s is the May ’21 closing high (103.3bp).
- GBP STIRs still around levels we indicated ahead of the gilt open.
- 46bp of BoE cuts showing through year-end vs. ~40bp late yesterday.
SWEDEN: March Economic Tendency Survey Highlights Difficult Riksbank Trade-offs
The March Economic Tendency Indicator highlighted the difficult trade-off faced by the Riksbank going forward. Consumer confidence fell markedly alongside weaker sentiment in the retail and services sectors, but expected price metrics continued to climb. The March meeting minutes (due at 0830GMT) should provide more colour on how each of the Executive Board members perceive these trade-offs.
- Consumer confidence fell markedly in 89.8 (vs 94.6 prior, revised from 95.0 initial), the lowest since April 2024. This reflected a drop in sentiment in the “micro” (i.e. household’s view of their own situation) and “macro” (i.e. household’s view of the general Swedish economic situation) subindices.
- Industry sentiment fell to 99.1 (vs 101.2 prior), reflecting falls in retail and services sentiment, but increases in manufacturing and construction.
- The expected employment balance fell to 4 (vs 6 the prior two months), with retail trade hiring expectations seeing a large fall to 7 (vs 13 in Feb, 9 in Jan).
- Expected prices moved further above the long-run average to 24 in March (vs 22 prior; LR average of 12), again driven by retail trade. The net balance of grocery wholesalers expecting prices to increase in the next 3 months reached 85 (vs 68 prior, LR average of 39), the highest reading since March 2023. This suggests further upside risks to food CPI inflation in the coming months.
