THAILAND: Speculation On Cabinet Quotas Rife As Election Body Certifies Results
Feb-25 09:43
Speculation on the possible distribution of cabinet seats is doing the rounds as the Election Commission (EC) certified all but four constituency election results, with preparations at parliament to receive new MPs continuing for the second day. Reports suggest that PM Anutin's Bhumjaithai Party is looking to fill 19 seats in the emerging cabinet.
- Khaosod reported that PM Anutin Charnvirakul's Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) was poised to get 19 cabinet seats (across 14 ministries), leaving 8 seats to the Pheu Thai Party (PTP), and 3 seats to be divided between the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and smaller parties.
- This falls in line with the Nation's report suggesting that the formula for cabinet quotas would be '5-19-8-3', with 5 seats comprising the so-called 'central quota' to be set aside for non-party experts. The central quota includes the Finance, Commerce, Foreign Affairs and Energy portfolios as well as one Deputy PM position.
- It is now virtually certain that the Kla Tham (KT) Party will be left out of the coalition, with signs of progress in the tentative allocation of cabinet seats suggesting that the BJT-PTP pact (our baseline scenario before the election) is being locked in. The coalition will control close to 300 seats in the 500-strong House of Representatives.
- The EC approved election results for 396 out of 400 constituency MPs today, 17 days after the election day and faster than in 2019 or 2023. The 396 MPs will be able to collect their certificates tomorrow, while re-votes and recounts have put the certification of results in four constituencies (three called for Bhumjaihai, one called for Kla Tham) on hold.
- This came after Thai Enquirer reported that officials at the parliament complex have been setting up tables and computers, while parking areas have been reserved for the registration of newly elected MPs between February 26 and March 6. This has fanned speculation that the new government could be installed before the Songkran holiday in mid-April.
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GERMAN DATA: IFO Sees Stronger Manufacturing, Lower Services
Jan-26 09:42
Germany's IFO Business Climate Index was unchanged in January after two consecutive falls, at 87.6 (88.2 consensus). The expectations component deteriorated marginally to 89.5 (90.3 cons; 89.7 prior), while the current assessment was slightly stronger this time at 85.7 (vs 86.0 cons; 85.6 prior).
- Across sectors, manufacturing saw its sharpest monthly recovery since last May but remained clearly in negative territory, while services saw some contained deterioration slightly below neutral.
- The release follows a solid reading of the German January flash PMIs, where both services and manufacturing came in stronger than expected, helping the composite reading to a 3-month high.
- Across sectors, the press release notes that:
- In manufacturing, the index increased sharply. Companies assessed current business conditions as more positive. Their expectations were also notably less pessimistic. However, capacity utilization fell from 78.1 to 77.5 percent, remaining below the long-term average of 83.2 percent.
- In trade, the index also rose sharply. Companies rated their business situation as more favourable, and expectations also became less pessimistic. This improvement was seen in both retail and wholesale trade. However, both indicators remain well below their long-term averages.
- In construction, the business climate improved. This was driven by a better assessment of current business conditions. However, the expectations indicator was unchanged. The order situation remains weak, particularly in building construction.
- However, in the service sector the business climate deteriorated. The current situation was assessed as slightly worse. Expectations also turned somewhat more pessimistic. In logistics, order backlogs and sentiment weakened. The business climate also cooled noticeably in tourism.
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