STIR: Somewhat Patient Fedspeak Helps Trimming Of Dovish Extremes
* Fed Funds implied rates are 1.5bps higher for near-term meetings, aided by recent Fedspeak pushi...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US-EU: EU Spox-Not Moving Forward w/Trade Countermeasures Pre-Aug 1
Reuters reports comments from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz regarding the state of trade relations between the EU and US. Says that the "goal is a quick solution", and says he is in close contact with US President Donald Trump and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Says that the EU is refraining from countermeasures "for now", but that "the US should not underestimate [the EU's] willingness to respond." MNI's Policy team reported on 14 July that EU officials are targeting a series of mini trade deals for key industries, even if Trump's 30% tariffs are imposed from 1 Aug (see 'MNI: EU Hopes For Mini-Deals With US Despite Tariff Threat')
- Separately, a Commission spox says that Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will hold a call with USTR Jamieson Greer this evening after talking with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on 14 July. In line with Merz's comments, the spox that the EU "has no intention to move forward with any trade countermeasures before 1 Aug", and that a Commission team is en route to Washington, D.C., to continue working-level talks.
ESM ISSUANCE: 6-month bills
| Type | 6-month bills |
| Maturity | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Amount | E1.089bln |
| Target | E1.1bln |
| Previous | E1.097bln |
| Avg yield | 1.923% |
| Previous | 1.946% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.41x |
| Previous | 2.32x |
| Previous date | Jun 17, 2025 |
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Offsetting Trends In Spanish Core HICP Inflation In June
Spanish core HICP (ex-energy and unprocessed foods) was little changed in June at 2.22% Y/Y (vs 2.20% prior). Small rises in processed foods and non-energy industrial good inflation were mostly offset by an easing in services inflation.
- Services inflation was 3.42% Y/Y (vs 3.47% prior). Although package holidays rose 10.76% M/M in June, this was below last year’s 12.49% reading, allowing the annual rate to ease. Meanwhile, accommodation services pulled back to 4.92% Y/Y (vs 7.03% prior). Elsewhere, insurance inflation softened to 8.81% Y/Y (vs 9.51% prior), the lowest since May 2024.
- Airfares were a large upside contributor in June, with domestic flight prices rising 24.96% M/M. Other services categories (including rents) were broadly steady on an annual basis.
- Core goods inflation was 0.29% Y/Y (vs 0.24% prior), with a pullback in clothing inflation offset by rises in footwear, furniture and household appliances.
- A rise in electricity prices meant energy inflation was -0.77% Y/Y, up from -2.99% prior.
- Unprocessed food inflation remains very strong at 8.45% Y/Y (vs 7.46% prior).
The proportion of sub-components with annual inflation rates between 1-3% was broadly steady around 30%.
