ISRAEL: Some Confusion Over Whether Gaza Ceasefire In Effect
Oct-09 09:14
Egypt's Al Qahera News reports that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has gone into effect at 12:00 local time. However, this is countered by Amit Segal at Israel's Channel 12, who posts on X "Israeli officials have clarified that the ceasefire will not go into effect right after the deal is signed, but after the government approves it this evening."
- As noted earlier (see 'ISRAEL: RTRS-Ceasefire Signing @ 12:00 Local, Fin Min Party Won't Vote In Favour', 08:28BST), the political-security cabinet is due to meet at 17:00 local time (10:00ET, 15:00BST), with a meeting of the full cabinet to approve the Palestinian prisoner release at 18:00 local.
- Focus will now be on the actions of the IDF, Hamas, as well as the Houthi rebels in Yemen as to whether fresh strikes are launched in Gaza or against Israeli forces/positions.
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FOREX: JPY Rallies as BoJ Report Suggests More Aggressive Tightening Schedule
Sep-09 09:13
- JPY started the session strong, carrying the theme through late Asia and early European trade. The stronger JPY helped aide USD weakness, prompting raising the importance of nearby USD Index support at 97.109, and into the bear trigger of 96.377. It's notable that today's USD weakness has not been triggered by a renewed pull lower in US yields (US 10y yield closed lower by over 5bps yesterday, but has steadied so far this morning).
- Instead, USDJPY selling looks the primary driver. JPY futures volumes are well ahead of average, with volumes supported by a sources report suggesting the BoJ see a strong chance of a further rate hike this year, despite the recent political upheaval in the ruling LDP. The piece reported some BoJ sources seeing the October meeting as a potential opportunity for tightening - a much more aggressive schedule than currently priced in.
- USD/JPY traded through the September lows in response, narrowing the gap with both the 100-dma of Y145.93 as well as decent-sized expiries into Y145.85-00 ($1.4bln).
- Focus for the duration of Tuesday trade rests on the annual benchmark payrolls revisions - which are expected to be marked notably lower for the 12 months into March - helping bolster the Oval Office's case for a more aggressive approach to monetary easing from the Fed. This morning's USD weakness is helping prop the major pairs through to new September highs headed into this week's economic and inflation data (today benchmark payrolls revisions, Wednesday PPI, Thursday CPI).
AUSTRIA AUCTION RESULTS: 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB
Sep-09 09:07
| 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB | |
| ISIN | AT0000A3HU25 |
| Issue Amount | E1.15bln |
| Previous | E690mln |
| Allotted | E1bln |
| Previous | E600mln |
| Avg yield | 2.937% |
| Previous | 2.917% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.21x |
| Previous | 3.09x |
| Bid-to-issue | 1.92x |
| Previous | 2.69x |
| Avg Price | 100.095 |
| Low Price | 100.045 |
| Pre-auction mid | 99.786 |
| Prev avg price | 100.257 |
| Prev low price | 100.211 |
| Prev mid-price | 99.926 |
| Previous date | 05-Aug-25 |
GILT AUCTION RESULTS: Strong 20-year auction
Sep-09 09:06
- A strong 20-year auction there with the lowest accepted price of 93.708 higher than the gilt had traded (prior to the bidding window closing) and the average price another 0.027 higher than that (resulting in a tight 0.2bp tail).
- Gilt futures also move to their highs of the day post-auction.
