NORWAY: Small Upward Revisions To 25/26 Wage Growth Expectations: Norges Survey
Norges Bank’s Q4 expectations survey is unlikely to move the needle much ahead of the December decision. Revisions to wage growth and long-term inflation expectations remain broadly in the realm of existing central bank expectations.
- Social partners have revised up wage growth expectations for 2025 and 2026, but both remain below Norges Bank’s September MPR projections.
- For 2025, employer and employee organisations expect wage growth at 4.4% (vs 4.3% last quarter). This is below Norges Bank’s 4.7% projection from the September MPR.
- In 2026, social partners see wage growth at 3.8%, up from 3.6% last quarter. Norges Bank projects 2026 wage growth at 4.2%.
- Wage growth expectations amongst other respondents were mixed: Economists revised expectations up 2 tenths in 2025 and 2026, while business leaders and households revised their expectations lower.
- Long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored amongst economists/social partners. Economists see 5-year ahead inflation at 2.3% (unchanged from last quarter), social partners see inflation at 2.4% in 5-years’ time (up a tenth from last quarter).
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GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 1.50% Jul-53 Green
| 1.50% Jul-53 Green Gilt | Previous | |
| ISIN | GB00BM8Z2V59 | |
| Amount | GBP1.50bln | GBP2.00bln |
| Avg yield | 5.294% | 5.169% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.17x | 3.20x |
| Tail | 0.8bp | 0.8bp |
| Avg price | 45.122 | 45.953 |
| Low price | 45.049 | 45.885 |
| Pre-auction mid | 45.097 | 45.924 |
| Previous date | 01-Jul-25 |
COMMODITIES: Gold Falls From Recent Highs But Overall Bullish Theme Intact
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down last week reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on $54.89 next, the May 5 low, where a break would open $54.10, the Apr 9 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at $61.76, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 26 high. A bull cycle in Gold remains intact. The latest climb maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4400.00 handle next, and $4404.9, a Fibonacci projection point. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down - a correction - would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support to watch lies at $4021.6, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.15 or -0.26% at $57.37
- Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.32% at $3.408
- Gold spot down $84.4 or -1.94% at $4271.27
- Copper down $5.65 or -1.12% at $497.95
- Silver down $2.6 or -4.96% at $49.8773
- Platinum down $49.89 or -3.06% at $1583.29
EQUITIES: Monday's Gains Reinforce Bullish Eurostoxx Futures Theme
The trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures is up and Monday's gains reinforce this theme. The breach of 5689.00, the Oct 2 and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant M/T uptrend. Sights are on 5727.18, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 5585.83, the 20-day EMA. A bullish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading above support at the 50-day EMA. The average, currently at 6621.98, has been pierced but remains intact - for now. Note that the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 marks the key short-term support. Clearance of this level would undermine a bull theme. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Oct 9 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 130.56 pts or +0.27% at 49316.06 and the TOPIX ended 1.05 pts higher or +0.03% at 3249.5.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 52.439 pts or +1.36% at 3916.332 and the HANG SENG ended 168.72 pts higher or +0.65% at 26027.55.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 13.06 pts or -0.05% at 24245.81, FTSE 100 higher by 19.3 pts or +0.21% at 9422.99, CAC 40 up 5.54 pts or +0.07% at 8211.61 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 4.1 pts or -0.07% at 5676.83.
- Dow Jones mini down 99 pts or -0.21% at 46815, S&P 500 mini down 9.5 pts or -0.14% at 6764.5, NASDAQ mini down 38.75 pts or -0.15% at 25267.
