EU-RUSSIA: Slovakia Raises Objections To Using Frozen Russian Assets Pre-ECOFIN
After the Belgian gov't indicated that it still remains unconvinced about the legality of EU plans to use frozen Russian assets held in the Union to fund Ukraine's war effort and reconstruction, Slovakian PM Robert Fico has voiced his opposition to using the ~EUR140bln held at Belgium's Euroclear as part of 'reparations loans'. The issue is set to be further discussed on 13 Nov in the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meeting of EU finance ministers in Brussels.
- Speaking to domestic broadcaster STVR on 9 Nov, Fico said “Slovakia won’t take part in any legal or financial schemes to seize frozen assets if those funds would be spent on military costs in Ukraine".
- Fico holds a strong hand when it comes to blocking the use of frozen Russian funds. While Belgium has been a strong supporter of sanctions on Russia, Slovakia and Hungary have frequently used the threat of vetoes in order to secure concessions from Brussels. The sanctions must be re-approved each six months, or else they expire. If this occurred, it would see Russia regain access to its frozen assets.
- At the ECOFIN, the Commission is set to present a list of options for financially assisting Ukraine. Given many EU member states face their own pressing fiscal situations, these are unlikely to prove as attractive as using the frozen Russian funds.
- Speculation that Norway (attending the ECOFIN as a guest) could guarantee the loans using its massive sovereign wealth fund is seen as largely fanciful. This raises the prospect that the IMF would be called on as lender of last resort for Kyiv. This is viewed as a sub-optimal outcome as the financial conditions imposed on Kyiv as par of any support package would likely prove more stringent than those from the EU.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
