US TSY OPTIONS: Short Term Call Buyer

"*SCHUMER: DEMOCRATS ARE READY TO PASS 5 FUNDING BILLS, NOT DHS
*SCHUMER: DHS FUNDING BILL NEEDS WORK, THUNE MUST SEPARATE IT" - bbg

• Odds of a shutdown from Saturday drops on Polymarket to a still high 66% (vs 77%)

• Powell again highlights weaker supply (immigration) and demand (which has weakened "a very similar amount [as supply], maybe just a little bit more, which is why the unemployment rate has gone up") as complicating the Fed's read of the labor market.
• "Part of payroll job softening is that both the supply and demand for labor has has come down.. Imagine they both came down a lot to the point where there is no job growth. Is that full employment? In a sense, it is, if demand and supply are in balance, you know, that you could say that full employment at the same time. Is that, do we really feel like that's, that's a maximum employment economy? It's a very challenging and quite unusual situation."

• RES 4: 188.65 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Oct 30 - Nov 5 price swing
• RES 3: 187.88 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low
• RES 2: 186.87 High Jan 23 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 183.99 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 183.40 @ 17:15 GMT Jan 28
• SUP 1: 181.79 Low Jan 26
• SUP 2: 181.57 Low Dec 17
• SUP 3: 180.50 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 179.75 Base of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low

A short-term bear cycle in EURJPY remains in play following the reversal from the Jan 23 high. The cross has pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 182.59. A clear breach of the average would signal a stronger reversal and open 181.57, the Dec 17 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger, at 186.87, the Jan 23 high. A break of this hurdle reinstates the recent uptrend.