SOFR: Short Setting Dominated Through Front End Of Futures Strip On Tuesday
OI data points to net short setting dominating through the green pack on the SOFR futures strip on Tuesday as most contracts in that zone settled lower.
- Meanwhile, a mix of net long cover and long setting was seen in the blues as contracts in that pack finished either side of unchanged.
| 03-Feb-26 | 02-Feb-26 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ5 | 1,362,482 | 1,365,815 | -3,333 | Whites | +41,028 |
SFRH6 | 1,409,888 | 1,392,300 | +17,588 | Reds | +47,509 |
SFRM6 | 1,449,151 | 1,442,458 | +6,693 | Greens | +17,871 |
SFRU6 | 1,473,846 | 1,453,766 | +20,080 | Blues | -37 |
SFRZ6 | 1,424,857 | 1,412,335 | +12,522 |
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SFRH7 | 1,061,860 | 1,058,246 | +3,614 |
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SFRM7 | 895,832 | 868,322 | +27,510 |
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SFRU7 | 835,939 | 832,076 | +3,863 |
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SFRZ7 | 869,158 | 855,834 | +13,324 |
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SFRH8 | 524,158 | 521,378 | +2,780 |
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SFRM8 | 445,197 | 439,257 | +5,940 |
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SFRU8 | 387,209 | 391,382 | -4,173 |
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SFRZ8 | 378,828 | 381,555 | -2,727 |
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SFRH9 | 216,301 | 215,490 | +811 |
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SFRM9 | 210,162 | 208,565 | +1,597 |
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SFRU9 | 171,179 | 170,897 | +282 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Trend Signals Still Point North
- In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD remains bullish, however a corrective cycle is in play for now. Today’s bearish start to this week’s session strengthens a short-term bear theme. The pair has pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.1683. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 1.1639, the 50.0% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg. Key resistance has been defined at 1.1808, the Dec 24 high.
- The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and for now, the latest pullback appears corrective. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key short-term support is seen at 1.3361, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback. For bulls, a resumption of the uptrend would open 1.3557, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg.
- The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Attention is on 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 155.00, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper correction.
EGB OPTIONS: Bund Put Spread
RXH6 129/127ps, bought for 127 in 2k (ref 127.27).
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: ISM Manufacturing, Tsy Bill Auctions
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 1/5 1000 ISM Mfg (48.2,48.4), Prices Paid (58.5, 58.7)
- 1/5 1130 US Tsy $86B 13W, $77B 26W bill auctions
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
