- -15,000 TYH6 112-15, post time bid at 1322:13ET, DV\01 $990,000.
- The 10Y contract trades 112-15 last (+9). Scale seller in up to -100,000 sold from 112-17.5 high to -15 (not to mention -80,000 FVH6 from 109-11.25 to -10
US TSYS: Short End Rates Canary in Coal Mine For Rate Cut
Mar-12 19:19
- Treasuries are extending lows late Thursday, short end SOFR crushed under under heavy selling (SFRU6-SFRU7 -0.110 to -0.175) oil supply disruptions and geopolitical risk in the Middle East underpin inflation concerns (WTI over $96.6/bbl at the moment - still off Monday's appr $120/bbl high).
- Projected rate cut pricing continues to retreat: latest vs. Wednesday lvls (*): Mar'26 at -.1bp, Apr'26 -1.2bp (-2.7bp), Jun'26 at -5.6bp (-9.7bp), Jul'26 at -9.2bp (-16.2bp), Sep'26 at -12.7bp (-23.9bp). *The first 25bp rate cut has been pushed all the way out to July 2027.
- On the other hand, Pres Trump on Truth Social calls for an intermeeting Fed rate cut: @realDonaldTrump "Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome “Too Late” Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting! President DONALD J. TRUMP".
- TYM6 currently -18 at 111-13.5 vs. 111-12 low -- continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards the next key support at 111-06+, the Jan 20 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important medium-term bearish development.
- Housing activity data was mixed to start the year, with starts jumping in January (as telegraphed by the previous month's rise in permits) but permits pulling back. The starts data were positive but at best, residential construction looks to be a neutral factor in overall economic activity in the early part of 2026. Starts posted an 11-month high 1,487k in January, well above the expected 1,341k and up from 1,387k prior (rev down from 1,404k).
- Look ahead to Friday's Data Calendar: 0830ET: Core PCE & GDP; UofM Sentiment/UofM Inflation and JOLTS at 1000ET
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EURGBP TECHS: Key Resistance Holding For Now
Feb-10 19:00
- RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17
- RES 3: 0.8746 High Jan 21 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8742 High Feb 09
- RES 1: 0.8729 100-dma
- PRICE: 0.8712 @ 15:43 GMT Feb 10
- SUP 1: 0.8678/8613 20-day EMA / Low Feb 04 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
- SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25
- SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle
Thursday’s strong bounce in EURGBP, and the continuation Monday, still appears corrective. Key short-term resistance to monitor is 0.8746, the Jan 21 high, where a break would signal a potential trend reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. The bear trigger is at 0.8613, the Feb 4 low.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Unrounded Core CPI Estimates Point To Upside Risk In January
Feb-10 18:45
- Looking ahead to Friday’s CPI report for January, we currently see a median unrounded estimate of 0.35% M/M for core CPI across nine analysts, pointing to upside risk to Bloomberg consensus of 0.3% M/M.
- That also translates to potential upside risk for the Y/Y figures in NSA data, on balance possibly with a ‘low’ 2.6% vs 2.5% consensus.
- Headline estimates meanwhile are more closely centered on the rounded consensus of 0.3% M/M however, with a median 0.30% M/M.
- These are again seen closer to the rounded consensus of 2.5% Y/Y and if anything with risk of rounding lower – see below.
- We’ll update this unrounded summary as we see more estimates.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Another Mar'26 10Y Sale
Feb-10 18:41
