BONDS: Short end Italy underperforms
Mar-01 08:44
- BTP futures are still lagging behind Bund, albeit off the contract low at 111.97.
- Yesterday's low at 111.78, was the lowest print since the 6th January.
- BTP/Bund spread is in turn 0.7bp wider, but well within yesterday's range.
- Looking at the short end 2yr, for Italy, BTSH3 hovers above yesterday's low at 105.03, which was also the lowest print since the 2nd of January.
- Looking at the 2yr Italian/German spread, it is sitting 2.6bps wider at 46.2bps.
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SWITZERLAND DATA: KOF Barometer Signals Robust Start to Q1
Jan-30 08:15
SWITZERLAND JAN KOF BAROMETER 97.2 (FCST 93.4); DEC 91.5r
- The Swiss KOF Barometer improved for a second consecutive month in January, jumping 5.7 points to 97.2, outpacing forecasts by nearly four points.
- Despite remaining below the medium-term average, the KOF Barometer implies the Swiss economy is on the rebound, which is largely broad-based.
- Further strength was noted in manufacturing, hospitality and services, boosted by improved demand outlooks.
- This data adds to evidence that the Swiss economy has avoided a Q4 contraction and should continue to experience muted growth in Q1. The SNB's last forecast round expected +2.0% growth in 2022 to slow to +0.5% in 2023.
Source: KOF Swiss Economic Institute
EURIBOR: Markets briefly fully price 3.50% ECB terminal rate post Spain CPI
Jan-30 08:15
Decent move in Euribor futures post-Spain CPI. The Jun-23 contract is now down 6.0 ticks (after moving as much as 7.5 ticks lower) while the Sep-23 contract saw a similar moving with markets briefly fully pricing in a terminal rate of 3.50% for the ECB (we are now just below this again).
BUNDS: Below Friday's lows post-Spanish inflation
Jan-30 08:11
- Bunds continue their descent here and have broken through Friday's low of 136.88.
- We are now trading around the 50.0% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run comes in at 136.67.
- Below here the next support is at the January 10 low of 136.04.
