ILS: Shekel Holds Steady, Response To Gaza Peace Plan Eyed
Oct-03 09:46
Spot USD/ILS trades flat at 3.3132, with bears targeting a break below 3.2915, which cushioned losses on Sep 29. Bullish focus falls on the 50-DMA/Sep 26 high of 3.3634/3.3704.
- The Times of Israel reported that Hamas was planning to reply 'positively' to US President Trump's Gaza peace plan but also submit amendments softening some provisions added by PM Netanyahu at the 11th hour. Hamas Politburo member Mohammed Nazzal told Al Jazeera that the group was due to issue a formal response to the proposal 'very soon' but was opposed to Israel's 'take it or leave it' approach.
- Local markets are shut for a long weekend due to the Yom Kippur.
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OPTIONS: Expiries for Sep03 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Sep-03 09:43
- EUR/USD: $1.1455(E2.2bln), $1.1525(E919mln), $1.1575-95(E1.5bln), $1.1600(E825mln), $1.1645-50(E792mln), $1.1675-80(E1.1bln), $1.1700(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Y145.00($865mln), Y145.50($976mln), Y146.50($1.4bln), Y147.15-30($1.6bln), Y148.00($595mln), Y149.00($508mln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3500(Gbp507mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6475(A$570mln)
EQUITY TECHS: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Support Remains Intact
Sep-03 09:38
- In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. The key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 6336.02. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 6239.50, the Aug 1 low and a key support. Moving average studies still highlight a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6523.00, the Aug 28 high.
- The primary trend set-up in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high appears corrective. However, the contract has breached 5372.85, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 5392.75, the 20-day EMA.
EGBS: 2.80% Handle In 10-year Bund Yield Holds Once Again
Sep-03 09:37
The 2.80% handle in the 10-year Bund yield has held once again, leaving yields -0.5bps at 2.78%. Today’s E5bln 10-year Bund supply was digested smoothly, with similar demand metrics to August’s auction.
- German yields are up to 1bp lower across the curve, with the 5-year lightly outperforming and recent bear steepening taking a breather. The broader steepening trend since 2023 remains intact though, with 5s30s currently up almost 70bps this year to 109.5bps.
- Bund futures are +12 ticks at 128.93, but remain shy of initial resistance at 129.42 (20-day EMA). That keeps risk tilted to the downside for now.
- 10-year peripheral EGB spreads to Bunds are up to 1.5bps tighter today, led by BTPs. OAT spreads are little changed, with ongoing French political uncertainty limiting any narrowing episodes.
- Lithuania is also holding at 10/20-year dual tranche syndication today.
- Eurozone final August services PMI’s weren’t major market movers, with the composite reading reaching a one-year high of 51.0 (vs 51.1 flash, 50.9 prior).
