USDJPY TECHS: Shallow Correction
Feb-22 09:05
- RES 4: 152.43 0.764 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
- RES 3: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
- RES 2: 151.43 High Nov 16
- RES 1: 150.89 High Feb 13
- PRICE: 150.25 @ 09:04 GMT Feb 22
- SUP 1: 148.85/147.57 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
- SUP 3: 145.59 Low Jan 16
- SUP 4: 144.36 Low Jan 12
The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback appears to be a correction. Recent fresh cycle highs confirm, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and note that last Tuesday’s gains resulted in a break of 149.75, the Nov 22 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 high and the Oct 1 ‘22 high and major resistance. Initial firm support lies at 148.85, the 20-day EMA.
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Historical bullets
SONIA: Call fly buyer
Jan-23 09:06
SFIH4 94.85/94.95/95.05c fly, bought for 1.25 in 4.5k.
GILT SYNDICATION: New 4.375% Jul-54 Gilt
Jan-23 09:04
- Size: GBP Benchmark (MNI expects GBP4-6bln)
- Maturity: 31 July 2054
- Guidance: 3.75% Oct-53 gilt + 1.75/2.25bp
- Settlement: Mar 24, 2024 (T+1)
- ISIN: GB00BPSNBB36
- Bookrunners: CITI / DB / JPM (B&D/DM) / NatWest / Santander
- Timing: Books open, today's business
From market source
US TSYS: Holding Lower Post-BoJ
Jan-23 08:54
The early London BoJ-derived move lower holds/extends a little with TY futures trading -0-06+ at 111-09+, 0-01 off the base of its 0-08+ session range.
- The contract remains comfortably within yesterday’s range. Initial resistance comes in at the 20-day-EMA/Jan 12 high (latter located at 112-26+), while initial support is seen at the Jan 19 low (110-26).
- Cash Tsy yields are 0.5-2.0bp higher, with a modest steepening bear bias apparent.
- 2s10s are ~12bp off YtD highs, while 5s30s are ~8-9bp off YtD steeps.
- FOMC-dated OIS shows ~11bp of cuts through Mar ’24 and ~133.5bp of cuts through calendar ’24, with both markers comfortably off the recent dovish extremes.
- Regional Fed economic activity surveys headline the NY data docket, with 2-Year supply set to kick start this week’s coupon Tsy issuance schedule.
