SOFR: SFRZ7-U8 Strip Blocked
Nov-19 08:56
Latest block trade lodged at 08:43:45 London/03:43:45 NY:
- SFRZ7-U8 strip 1K blocked, CME points to a buyer, although looks more seller initiated when looking at prevailing bids and offers at the time.
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BOJ: May Revise Up FY25 Growth Forecast At Oct Meeting: Reuters
Oct-20 08:44
Reuters sources on the BOJ's growth forecasts:
- " BOJ MAY SLIGHTLY REVISE UP ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST FOR FISCAL 2025 AT OCTOBER POLICY MEETING, SOURCES SAY" Reuters
- "BOJ LIKELY TO MAINTAIN VIEW ECONOMY ON COURSE FOR MODERATE RECOVERY, DESPITE HEADWINDS FROM U.S. TARIFFS, SOURCES SAY" Reuters
BUNDS: Cash Basis Trade
Oct-20 08:25
Bund Basis trade, suggest Cash seller:
- RXZ5 7k at 129.83.
GILTS: Steady Open; Trend In 10-year Yields Still To The Upside
Oct-20 08:22
A fairly steady open for Gilts ahead of an important week for UK data. Futures are -4 ticks at 92.42. A short-term bull cycle in futures remains intact though, with initial resistance at Friday’s high of 93.17.
- Yields are up to 1bp higher across the curve. 10-year yields are currently 4.536%, down from this month’s 4.758% high. Despite this month’s fall in yields, the medium-term trend for the 10-year is still to the upside. Initial support is the April 7 low at 4.363%, which shields trendline support drawn from the November 2022 low at 4.232% today.
- See MNI’s Tech Trend Monitor for more, which also includes charts on the 30-year Gilt yield.
- Fiscal policy remains a key focus for the Gilt market ahead of the Nov 26th budget. The main fiscal headlines from the weekend have suggested that VAT may be removed from energy bills.
- September public sector finance data is due on Tuesday. After correcting for a VAT error in last month’s release, PSNB is currently tracking GBP9.4bln below the OBR’s forecast year-to-date.
- This release, alongside Wednesday’s CPI report (important for the near-term BOE outlook) will feed into the OBR’s Round 3 forecast on October 31 ( see here for more).
Figure 1: 10-year Gilt Yields (Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P)
