SOFR: SFRH7-Z7 Strip Blocked Again

Bears initially pierce prior session lows in gilt futures given the bearish impetus from U.S. Tsys (reaction to higher oil prices as NY filters in) and EGBs (reports pointing to a further uptick in German borrowing in ’27), before the contract bases at 86.45 and recovers to 86.65. 

• Key support at the Mar 23 low (85.91) remains some distance away, with bears in technical control despite the bounce from session lows.
• Pullback from lows sees 10s steady around 5.00%, as gilt bears look to establish themselves above that psychological level.
• Curve still bear flattens on the day, yields 1.5-5.5bp higher.

• MNI:US FEB FHFA HPI SA +0.0% V +0.2% JAN; +1.7% Y/Y

House Republican leadership has postponed a second meeting of the House Rules Committee. The session, expected to get underway this morning to vote on advancing key legislation for the House floor, was rescheduled after a marathon meeting of the committee recessed yesterday amid an ongoing standoff between leadership and conservative hardliners.

• The delay increases concerns that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has no workable coalition to pass an extension of the Section 702 (FISA) warrantless spy law that expires on Thursday, pass a budget resolution to unlock work on an immigration enforcement reconciliation bill, or pass a funding measure for the Department of Homeland Security. There are also problems with the more straightforward farm bill, with opposition from 'MAHA' conservatives over pesticide provisions and a separate push from Midwest Republicans to include a vote on year-round sales of the E15 gasoline-ethanol blend.
• If the DHS funding isn’t approved by April 30, it is unclear if the government can continue paying the department’s 270,000 employees, who are currently receiving salaries via two executive orders from Trump.
• Punchbowl News writes on the budget resolution: "The House GOP whip team surveyed the conference Monday evening on the budget resolution and it wasn’t clear that the measure had the support to pass.”
• Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA), top Rules Committee Democrat, told reporters at around midnight yesterday: “They’re clearly not talking to their members. They have no clue on strategy or how to move anything across the finish line, and it’s just frustrating...”