POLAND: Senior PiS Off'ls Play Brinkmanship, MPC's Wnorowski Expects Flat Rates

• RES 4: 92.47 High Mar 3 and a gap low on the daily chart 
• RES 3: 92.15 High Mar 5 
• RES 2: 90.70 20-day EMA   
• RES 1: 90.38 38.2% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 13 bear leg       
• PRICE: 89.71 @ Close Mar 17
• SUP 1: 88.31 Low Mar 13   
• SUP 2: 88.17 1.618 proj of the Feb 27 - Mar 3 - 4 rice swing
• SUP 3: 88.00 Round number support   
• SUP 4: 87.79 1.764 proj of the Feb 27 - Mar 3 - 4 rice swing     

A volatile bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The recent breach of 88.80, the Mar 9 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 88.17 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Note that the trend is oversold. A recovery is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is at the 20-day EMA, at 90.70.

• RES 4: 186.87 High Jan 23 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 3: 186.36 High Feb 9
• RES 2: 185.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 9 - 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 184.08/77 High Mar 11 and a S/T bull trigger / High Feb 25 
• PRICE: 183.26 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 181.87 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 180.81 Low Feb 12 
• SUP 3: 180.10 Low Dec 5 ‘25
• SUP 4: 179.30 23.6% of the Feb 28 ‘25 - Jan 23 bull cycle 

EURJPY has breached a key support around 183.42, marking the base of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low. The break signals a stronger reversal and a continuation lower would open the next key support at 181.81, the Feb 12 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bear cycle. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 184.08, the Mar 11 high. A move above this hurdle would instead signal a S/T reversal and a false channel breakout.

Germany will hold a LT Bund auction today, while Spain and France will hold auctions tomorrow. Earlier this week, Luxembourg held a syndication while Slovakia and Finland held auctions. We look for gross issuance of E26.9bln for the week, down from E29.5bln last week.

For the full document with a recap of issuance so far this week and a look ahead to issuance through the remainder of this week and next week click here

• Germany will hold a LT Bund auction today. On offer will be E1.0bln of the 2.50% Aug-46 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102341) alongside E1.5bln of the on-the-run 2.90% Aug-56 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D012).