MNI EXCLUSIVE: Senior China Commodity Advisor Shares Oil Demand Outlook

A prominent Chinese political scientist and government advisor provides insight into China-U.S. relations.  On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com. 

The EUR/USD range Friday night was 1.1502-1.1545, Asia is currently trading around 1.1510. The pair traded heavily into the weekend but as of yet has been unable to break back below the 1.1500 support. The pair remains above its pivotal support in the 1.14-1.15 area for now but I still prefer to be fading bounces as Europe looks to be at the epicenter of the global supply issues. On the day, I would be looking for sellers back toward 1.1535-1.1565 initially, expecting a challenge of the support around 1.1500. A sustained break below 1.1500 and the market will again be looking to test the important 1.1400 area. Some Corporate month-end demand for USD’s could be seen today which could potentially add to the EUR headwinds. Some decent optionality though between 1.1450 & 1.1500 pinning the price for now.

• Steve Burns on X: “WSJ - "More expensive oil is bad for Europe, Japan and Korea, all big importers. It is actually a net benefit to the U.S., as an exporter and the world’s biggest producer."
• CFTC Data up to 24/03/26 shows the Leveraged community continuing to add to their recently acquired short EUR exposure, -56 039(Last -49 544). Asset managers continue to pare back their core long exposure, +308 301(Last +317 076).
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 1.1450(EU869m), 1.1550(EU963m), 1.1700(EU1.07b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 1.1450(EU2.55b April 1), 1.1500(EU4.06b April 1), 1.1700(EU2.78b April 1) - BBG
• The EUR/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 74 Points

Fig 1 : EUR/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

The BBDXY range Friday night was 1215.31-1219.85, Asia is currently trading around 1220, +0.10%. The BBDXY broke above the 1215-1217 to extend above its recent range as risk starts to potentially turn Bearish. US 10 year yields above 4.40% and the NASDAQ accelerating its break below the pivotal support around 24000 saw Trump try and jaw-bone markets again this morning, with very limited effect. Cracks are starting to show and the USD is breaking higher in response. Should we enter a Bear market and this move lower in risk begins to accelerate I suspect the USD will then break higher. USD/EM could be most vulnerable, specifically against those currencies that have been bought for the Carry-Trade, though DM carry trades will also be impacted. On the day, watch for this break higher to hold and potentially regain upward momentum. I continue to be skewed toward fading dips while uncertainty remains high and risk is under pressure. First support is back toward 1214-1216 where I suspect buyers should reemerge looking for a retest of the pivotal 1230-1240 area.                        

• Robin Brooks on X: “The Dollar downtrend has now been meaningfully disrupted. But that doesn't mean it's over. As soon as this war ends - and it must because of the midterms - Dollar weakness will reassert itself. EM commodity exporters like Brazil will then do really well...
• robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-this-we”
• Steve Hanke on X: “The US gov't is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, which was released last week to near-total media silence.”
• Jim Bianco on X - “An October rate HIKE is back above 50%” 
• The BBDXY Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 6.50 Points

Fig 1: BBDXY Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P