EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Senegal: Update post IMF’s Press Briefing
(SENEGL; Caa1neg/B-neg/NR)
- In its customary Q&A Press Briefing released late yesterday, IMF’s spokesperson Director Ms Julie Kozack addressed several questions regarding the latest development around Senegal’s public debt situation.
- Whilst sovereign bond valuations in secondary markets plummeted earlier in the week (SENEGL 33s down 9pt, from 69.80 as per CoB Fri 11th to 60.80 as per CoB Thu13th), bonds seemingly chart higher today in cash price terms (SENEGL 33s at 63.25 area, approx. +2.4pt vs previous close, source: Bloomberg).
- In essence, our read is that the Fund remains open for dialogue and that an updated Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) jointly with the World Bank is in the making.
- There is no mention of direct call for restructuring, which in any case would remain a sovereign decision, rather “staff and the authorities did discuss the significant debt vulnerabilities that Senegal faces”, and “they also discussed options to address the challenges surrounding Senegal's debt”.
- With respect to potential for recourse to changes in tax revenues as a key component to address the sovereign debt position, a word of caution in general terms on the effectiveness (timing and scope) of such measures reads appropriate on the Fund’s side.
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FRANCE: Le Pen Cannot Stand In Any Snap Election After Court Ruling
The Council of State, France's supreme administrative court, has rejected Marine Le Pen's appeal against her immediate ineligibility to run for political office after she was found guilty of embezzlement in March. The sentence saw the parliamentary leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) given four years in prison (two suspended), a EUR500k fine, and, most politically relevant: a five-year ban on running for public office. The Council's ruling that the ban is effective immediately means she cannot run in any snap legislative or presidential election. Le Pen's full appeal hearing takes place from 13 Jan-12 Feb 2026.
- This ruling may have less of an immediate electoral impact, given the prospect of a snap election has receded after PM Sebastien Lecornu delivered concessions to the centre-left Socialist Party in his 14 Oct general policy speech.
- Before her sentencing, Le Pen had been almost a certainty to make the second-round run off, and hypothetical polling showed her performing well against some of the most likely candidates from the centre/left.
- With Le Pen's absence confirmed for now, RN President Jordan Bardella (who will be 31 at the time of the next election due by April 2027) is next in line. It may be too early to try and determine Bardella's prospects in a hypothetical second round. Former PM and centre-right Horizons party leader Edouard Philippe, who has stated his intention to run in 2027, could prove his toughest opponent.
