US: Senate Vote On 'War Powers' Resolution Underway Shortly

With the National Assembly set to vote in around three hours on the Social Security Finance Bill (PLFSS), there is no clear signal as to whether the crucial legislation will pass or be defeated. If the legislation is passed, it will return to the Senate. To save time, the Senate is likely to simply vote to reject the National Assembly's version as a whole on Friday, 12 Dec, rather than revise it. This would see the bill return to the National Assembly for final ratification in the following days (any changes the Senate makes can be removed by deputies, and then the legislation enacted without Senate approval via Art. 46 of the Constitution. 

• Renaissance deputy Sylvain Maillard claims, "It will come down to 8 votes, that's the final count. Around 8, it passes, yes it passes."
• As shown in the graphic below, the abstention of the Ecologists (see FRANCE: Today's Crucial National Assembly Vote Remains On A Knife Edge), the conservative Les Républicains, centre-right Horizons, and left-wing Democratic and Republican Left groups would be enough to pass the budget.
• It is also likely that groups will not vote as a whole, making it even more difficult to calculate the final result. Ecologist Deputy Sandrine Rousseau has already stated her intention to vote against the bill.
• The Health Minister and Minister of Public Accounts have been speaking on the floor of the chamber to tout concessions on healthcare in a final effort to convince deputies from the Ecologist group to abstain rather than vote against the bill.
• Lawmakers in the small centrist Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories (LIOT) group have "total freedom to vote" any way they wish, according to deputy for the Vosges, Christophe Naegelen, who added the group will vote "in the majority" for the PLFSS. 

Chart 1. Hypothetical Voting Blocs in National Assembly for PLFSS

Source: Le Monde, MNI

It has long been known that Ramsden is concerned about the labour market. He explains some of his concerns in more detail:

• "I share Clare's concerns about about the supply side... But I think for me... that the demand risks are more apparent. You know, I talk in my report to you that, you know, when we the first stage of the labour market loosening, we were moving down."
• "There's an increase in the job separation rate. People are being let go from work into unemployment, and on the nominal side, I draw attention in a set of charts for the committee to the fact that the wage forecast has been undershooting this this year, our short term wage forecast has actually consistently come in lower which, from an inflation point of view, is encouraging. You know, for all the discussion we were having earlier, around risks, around inflation, but also for me, is another indication that notwithstanding these supply side issues... demand is weakening."
• "The labour market is becoming more contestable. There are more applicants for every job, and that's meaning that wage pressures are easing.
• "I think policy is restrictive. Monetary policy is the main tool for slowing the economy, and it is slowing the economy, and that's that's impacting... particularly for smaller companies. We did some analysis of cash flow. I think smaller companies, a lot of charities I talked to through the banks community forums. They are, you know, they are really struggling to hold on. You know, they can't now afford to hold on to their staff. You know, they're having liquidity issues. They're having to let people go, having weathered, you know, a number of years of being able to hold on to staff. They now they can't do that anymore."

• "I'm very concerned about the labour market... we are definitely seeing a loosening, as Dr Mann said, in the sort of private sector labour market... higher levels of vacancies, increasing unemployment. And that is, of course, a concern. It comes from a very, a period of a very, very tight labour market, historically tight, not that long ago... that is sort of downside risk that we we focus on as a lot of analysis."
• "For me personally, I'm actually more worried about the supply side of the labour market... I'm much more worried about economic inactivity. What is going on there? What are the structural changes that we have seen following the shocks that we have just had, whether that is sort of Covid or energy prices, but particularly covid, you know, we have seen some really big changes, structural changes, I think, in the labour market around who is working."
• "There's some... really quite striking data about what's going on with young people, for example, that I think we need to understand. So I wouldn't just characterise this as just are we seeing a fall off in the demand for labour? I think we need to think about the demand for labour very carefully. Understand it very carefully. But I think we also need to look at some of these supply things as well."