US: Senate Passes Funding Package, US Government Set To Reopen On Wednesday
The United States Senate has passed a funding package to reopen the US government. The package, which now heads to the House of Representatives, includes three full-year FY2026 appropriations bills covering agencies related to the Departments of Agriculture, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and the legislative branch. Remaining US government agencies will be funded at existing levels through January 30 with a new short-term funding measure (Continuing Resolution).
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) - who has kept the House recessed for 54 days - has teed up votes in the House at 16:00 ET 21:00 GMT on Wednesday, November 12, allowing members sufficient time to reach the capital in light of shutdown-related travel delays.
- Johnson is likely to pass the package under a rule, meaning it will require a vote in the House Rules Committee and then a subsequent simple majority vote on the House floor to move forward to a final up/down vote on the bill. In recent years, House conservatives have made this process difficult due to objections to unscrutinised funding bills and short-term measures. However, conservatives are unlikely to object this time around, with key members of the House Freedom Caucus lining up behind the package, despite the inclusion of three Senate-drafted appropriations bills and a CR.
- While the majority of House Democrats are expected to vote 'no', the bill is expected to be sent to President Donald Trump's desk on Wednesday evening, ending a 43-day government shutdown.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
