US: Sen. Shaheen Advocates For Legislation Targetting Russia's "Shadow Fleet"

Modest hawkish adjustment in the USD front end on the back of the firmer-than-expected durable goods data, but affirmation of the idea that the broader U.S. economy is not facing material headwinds is hardly a gamechanger for Fed pricing.

• Labour market developments remain key, with recent data flow pointing to a slowing, albeit not weak (low hiring & low firing), jobs environment.
• Fed Funds showing ~45bp of cuts through year-end vs. 46bp pre-data, next 25bp cut full priced through July (1bp for this month, 4bp through March, 7bp through April and 18bp through June).
• SOFR futures last -1.0 to +1.0 vs. flat to +2.0 into the data. Implied terminal rare pricing 3.27% vs. 3.26% heading in.
• Late Friday dovish front-end repricing after BBG sources suggested that Rick Rieder was the frontrunner to succeed Fed Chair Powell (proxied by SFRZ6) now unwound. That move was more to do with institutional credibility on the back of such a choice than anything else. Contract 3.5 off last week’s multi-month lows, after a 47bp sell off from the Sep top.

SX5E (20th Mar) 6200/6300cs 1x1.5, bought for 9 in 5k.

• MNI: BELGIUM JAN BNB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE -8.8 (-11.9 DEC)