POLAND: Sejm To Vote On Czarzasty's Speakership Bid
Nov-18 08:18
- New Left's Włodzimierz Czarzasty is expected to be confirmed as the new Marshal (Speaker) of the Sejm, replacing Poland 2050's Szymon Hołownia halfway through the parliamentary term, in line with the existing coalition agreement. The vote at 10:00GMT/11:00CET will be a test of unity for the governing coalition after a couple of Poland 2050 MPs suggested that they would not vote for Czarzasty. Money.pl reported that Czarzasty is planning to ditch the Hołownia-era practice of putting all eligible legislative drafts to debate and reassert agenda-setting powers through the use of the so-called 'legislative freezer', a practice where the Speaker arbitrarily delays advancing selected bills (usually tabled by the opposition) on procedural grounds.
- The most popular measure of core inflation (CPI ex-food and energy) dropped to +3.0% Y/Y in October from +3.2% prior, printing marginally above the consensus estimate (+2.9%). CPI ex-administered prices eased to +2.3% Y/Y from +2.5%, CPI ex-volatile prices cooled to +3.4% Y/Y from +3.7%, while the 15% trimmed mean fell to +2.6% Y/Y from +2.9%.
- Commenting on recent railway sabotage acts, top military commander General Wiesław Kukuła said that 'the adversary has started preparations for war' and is 'trying to build a certain environment, which would create conducive conditions for a potential aggression on Poland's territory. The Committee for National Security will meet today to take stock of the situation.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
