POLAND: Sejm Speaker Calls For Rate Cuts, Minister Comments On Energy Price Cap
- Climate and Environment Minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska told Money.pl that the government will keep a lid on household electricity prices for "as long as it takes to protect Polish families against rising costs of living." She said that the aim is to further reduce wholesale energy prices in order to see electricity tariffs decline below their maximum level. The government will attempt to gradually phase out price freezing in such a way as to avoid sharp price spikes. In Hennig-Kloska's view, we are now "at the pain threshold" of Polish households when it comes to the level of energy costs. The next review of electricity tariffs is due in April and the government will make a decision on price caps after that.
- The outlook for energy prices has been one of the key factors behind the NBP's projection implying a rebound in headline inflation in 4Q25, which the central bank used to justify a cautious stance and reluctance to any imminent, aggressive monetary easing. Changes to the assumptions on the energy price cap mechanism would affect the NBP's inflation projection and might shift the Monetary Policy Council's (MPC's) stance.
- Sejm Speaker Szymon Holownia published a letter that he wrote to NBP Governor Adam Glapinski, in which he asks the top central banker to "consider lowering interest rates" in the interest of Polish borrowers. Holownia pointed to a "clear trend of easing monetary policy in Europe and flagged the need to start the debate on loosening the restrictive monetary policy in Poland. He expressed hope that the MPC "takes into account the pace of economic recovery and the costs of living incurred by the citizens of the Republic."
- Both leading candidates in the presidential race will hold major campaign events over the weekend. Civic Coalition's Trzaskowski has been able to maintain a comfortable lead amid an underwhelming showing from his main rival Law and Justice's Karol Nawrocki. Meanwhile, Confederation's Mentzen has been slowly reducing the distance to the leading two candidates, although he remains some way off. All of the other candidates are polling in single digits.
- Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that if the US slaps 25% tariffs on EU imports, the impact on the Polish economy would not exceed 0.1% of GDP, but would be painful for the automotive industry. He said that tariffs would be most painful for Hungary and Slovakia, which he called "the irony and sneer of history and politics."
- The Finance Ministry will release its preliminary bond issuance schedule for the month of March at 14:00GMT/15:00CET.
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EURGBP TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8545 High Aug 21
- RES 3: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.8421/8474 High Jan 27 / 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8372 @ 08:11GMT Jan 29
- SUP 1: 0.8364 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.8357 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8284 Low Jan 8
- SUP 4: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
EURGBP continues to trade lower this week, extending the correction that started on Jan 20. A bull cycle is intact and moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant short-term uptrend. The 20-day EMA at 0.8387 has been breached and this exposes 0.8357, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal. The bull trigger is 0.8474, the Jan 20 high. A break of it would resume the uptrend.
EQUITIES: ASML is up 11% on the Open, LVHM falls
Big move in the Tech index, way past pre DeepSeek's collapse.
(chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
SILVER TECHS: Recent Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $31.022 - High Jan 24
- PRICE: $30.417 @ 08:07 GMT Jan 29
- SUP 1: $29.509/28.748 - Low Jan 13 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Silver is unchanged. A bear cycle that started on Oct 23 last year remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the latest move higher does suggest scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. On the downside, support to watch is $29.509, the Jan 13 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.
