SECURITY: US/Israel Reach Agreement Not To Strike Iran's Oil/Nuclear Facilities
Al-Monitor reporting that the US and Israel have come to a 'quiet understanding' that Israel will refrain from striking Iran's oil industry and nuclear facilities in return for Washington accelerating arms shipments. However, the agreement is not formalised and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netayanhu may opt for a more punitive strik due to pressure from the far right of his base.
- The report notes: "The package also includes increased US attacks on Houthi weapons depots and other strategic targets in Yemen — a promise that appears to have been kept with the Oct. 16 US strike on Houthi weapons depots in Yemen."
- The report adds that, "both Israeli and US officials consider Iran likely to respond to Israel’s expected attack, which will reportedly target military and other sites," and in response, the Pentagon may be considering the deployment of a second THAAD missile defence system to Israel to enhance anti-missile defences.
- A senior Israeli security source said: "The role of the Americans in the next round — in which it will be Israel's turn to attack Iran — will be critical. They will have to make it clear to Iran in a persuasive and creative way, to break the cycle of reactions so that an all-out war does not break out."
- The report notes that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been tasked with convincing Israeli officials, during his current trip, that the killing of the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah should clear the path for multipronged ceasefire talks.
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Historical bullets
EURGBP TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 2: 0.8461/64 50-day EMA / High Sep 12
- RES 1: 0.8441 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8385 @ 19:13 BST Sep 20
- SUP 1: 0.8383/78 Low Jul 17 and a key support / Low Sep 20
- SUP 2: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces this theme. The cross has breached 0.8400, Aug 30 low. A clear break of it confirms a resumption of the bear cycle and also confirms a recent bear flag on the daily chart - a continuation pattern. Sights are on 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and the next key support. It has been pierced, a clear break would open 0.8340, the Aug 2 ‘22 low. Resistance to watch is 0.8461, 50-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 1.3500 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.3425 1.764 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3340 HIgh Sep 20
- PRICE: 1.3310 @ 19:09 BST Sep 20
- SUP 1: 1.3128 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3012/3002 50-day EMA / Low Sep 11
- SUP 3: 1.2890 Low Aug 19
- SUP 4: 1.2852 Low Aug 16
GBPUSD traded higher last week. The extension higher resulted in a print above key resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high. This break confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting a clear uptrend. Sights are on 1.3362 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial firm support is 1.3128, the 20-day EMA.
EURUSD TECHS: Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 3: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1202 High Aug 26 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.1189 High Sep 18
- PRICE: 1.1158 @ 19:03 BST Sep 20
- SUP 1: 1.1081/1009 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 3: 1.0940 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
The short-term outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1081, has been pierced but remains intact for now. The resumption of gains signals scope for a move higher towards 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, a clear break of the 20-day EMA would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement.
